Firebaugh, California Weather Forecast Discussion

309
FXUS66 KHNX 220900
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warm trend in temperatures continue through Tuesday.
2. Precipitation is in store for Central California by Tuesday
across Kern County and the Coastal Range. There is a 20 to 30
percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain.
3. Widespread and heavy precipitation will move into Central
California on Wednesday as there is a 25 to 45 percent chance of
a quarter of an inch of rain. In addition, there is at least a
5% chance of excessive rainfall across Central California on
Wednesday (and Thursday).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The passage of a weak disturbance to the north of Central
California will help keep the area under mostly clear skies this
Monday. While monsoonal moisture has been push east, an upper
low off the California Coast will help re-introduce another push
of monsoonal moisture back into the area around mid-week. In
the meanwhile, the continuation of the ridge pattern over the
region will allow for warm temperatures to exist through
Tuesday. By Wednesday, the upper low offshore will move along
the coast as monsoon moisture surges northward. While heavier
precipitation will favor the coast on Wednesday, the upper low
will then move over Central California on Thursday as heavy
precipitation shifts eastward. Will then see lingering moisture
over the area producing Sierra Nevada convection through the
weekend.
Latest ensemble precipitation analysis has the onset of
widespread precipitation starting on Tuesday. A majority of the
probabilistic analysis confines measurable precipitation to the
south-end around Kern County. With ensemble upper-air analysis
leaning toward a coastal trajectory solution, will see most of
the precipitation on Tuesday over Kern County and the west side
along the West Highs (Coastal Range). By Wednesday, 24 hour rain
probabilities show amounts reaching 0.50 (half an inch) with
some extreme values reaching over one inch (near 1.25).
Therefore, with probabilities reaching high values, there is at
least a 5% chance of experiencing excessive rainfall on
Wednesday. The northward surge of moisture will present similar
conditions on Thursday as the probability of excessive rainfall
continues. Yet, with the upper low exiting the area on Thursday,
will expect most of the precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.
By Friday, the passage of the upper low through Southern
California will change the flow pattern toward a drier one with
a change toward cooler conditions. Probability of Exceedance of
reaching 95 degree by Friday remains at less than 30%. These
percentages increases confidence in high temperatures that are
near normal for this time of year. At the same time, lingering
moisture from the second push of moisture will allow for the
continuation of convection across the Sierra into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update:
Across the Sierra Nevada, there is a 5 percent chance of
thunderstorms between 20Z today and 03Z Tuesday. VFR conditions
expected for the next 24 hours with MVFR possible in haze from
14Z-17Z.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public/Aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion