Five Islands, Maine Weather Forecast Discussion

525
FXUS61 KGYX 011720
AFDGYX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
120 PM EDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles in the rest of today and tonight, leading
to cooler temperatures. In a departure from recent weather,
high temperatures will remain in the low to mid 60s this
afternoon and Thursday. Overnight will feel even more fall-like,
with widespread low temperatures in the 30s and even 20s in the
northern valleys. Frost will be possible even into some coastal
areas. By Friday warmer weather will begin to return, with
above normal temperatures through the middle of next week. The
one consistent feature of the next week or so will be continued
dry weather.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across the south
with some fair weather cumulus over the mountains and portions of
the interior. High pressure is currently centered over central
Quebec and will slide down into the region tonight. A decent
pressure gradient in between the high and distant Hurricane Humberto
will lead to some breezy northerly winds today, especially earlier
in the afternoon when we could see some 20 to 25 mph gusts (and
maybe even bit higher off shore). As we go through the day and into
tonight, the center of the high will dip south and nudge closer,
relaxing the pressure gradient a bit. This should help to diminish
winds late today and tonight, but some breezy conditions may hang on
around coastal areas and off shore. A south southeast swell from
Hurricane Humberto will continue to build through the day, leading
to a high risk for rip currents and 5 to 7 foot wave heights (~14
second period) through the day. Thus, the High Surf Advisory appears
to be in good shape for now.
With high pressure starting to settle in tonight, calming winds and
a dry airmass should lead to optimal radiational cooling, especially
across the north and the usual cold spots. There could be some
sparse mid to high clouds but would not expect these to impact the
cooling too much. Lows will generally range from widespread upper
20s north to the 30s south. We could see some low to mid 20s in the
valleys and cold spots and some lower 40s along portions of the
coast. Widespread frost and the usual valley fog will be likely
again tonight. Will issue a Freeze Warning for Grafton county and a
Frost Advisory for most of the Maine Foothills, the Interior, and
the southern half of New Hampshire.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As the high continues to slide south, we gradually transition back
to onshore flow Thursday afternoon, leading to a slightly warmer day
than today. Highs will still be seasonable for this time of year,
mainly ranging from the mid 50s north to the mid 60s across portions
of the south.
While winds will be much lighter on Thursday, seas will be a bit
slower to calm. Thus, we could still see some more strong rip
currents. A Rip Current Statement or High Surf Advisory will likely
be needed along the coast, but we will wait until current headlines
expire first.
Thursday night should be chilly, but not as cold with southwesterly
flow in place. Still, we should see another night with widespread
frost and lows in the upper 20s to upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Message: High pressure remains in control of the weather thru
the extended. Temps will return to above normal thru the middle of
the week.
Impacts: No significant weather impacts anticipated beyond
maintaining/deepening drought conditions. As temps turn warmer
and fuels continue to dry out fire weather concerns may also
increase.
Forecast Details: High pressure will be centered south of New
England. It will remain close enough that we should still see large
diurnal ranges in temps. With southwest winds bringing in warmer air
during the day...and radiational cooling getting lower elevations
cool overnight. It does look like S/WV trofs passing thru the St.
Lawrence Valley will keep the northern extent of the ridging knocked
down a bit. There may even be some cloud cover along that boundary
thru the weekend. But the majority of the forecast area will lay
south of that front...and will return to above normal temps.
Heading into early next week ridging builds well north of the
forecast area...and deep southwesterly flow will set up. This is
when ensemble guidance is signaling temps will turn quite warm.
Reading well above normal are expected thru at least Tue. Mon/Tue
may see temps within a few degrees of daily records. Beyond that
model guidance is hinting at a strong cold frontal passage midweek
and a return to more seasonally appropriate weather.
Otherwise it will be another very dry stretch. Little if any rain is
forecast and worsening drought conditions are expected by next
Thu.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely through the short
term with only the usual valley fog overnight. KHIE, KLEB, and
KMHT could all see overnight visibility dipping into IFR to MVFR
categories. Fog should lift shortly after sunrise. Northerly
winds will be breezy this afternoon, relaxing in the evening and
fairly light during the day on Thursday.
Long Term...High pressure will ensure widespread VFR conditions
prevail for much of the TAF period. Overnight will retain some
threat of radiation fog in the river valleys...but this will largely
be confined to HIE and LEB much like past high pressure events.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds will remain a bit breezy out of the north
this afternoon as we remain in between high pressure and
distant Hurricane Humberto. We will likely see some gusts in the
25 to 30 knot range in the afternoon as a southerly swell from
Humberto builds in through the rest of today and tonight. Wave
heights should gradually diminish through the day on Thursday.
SCA conditions should persist through at least tomorrow
afternoon with the swell even as winds start to relax overnight.
Long Term...With high pressure in control...winds and seas are expected
to remain below SCA thresholds.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for MEZ012>014-
     018>022-033.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>027.
NH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NHZ004-
     006>009-011-015.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Thursday for NHZ003-005.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150>154.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...Hargrove
SHORT TERM...Hargrove
LONG TERM...Legro

NWS gyx Office Area Forecast Discussion