Flat Fork, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

191
FXUS64 KSHV 141907
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
207 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
- A few more days of above average heat will maintain high temps
   in the lower to mid 90s.
- The upper-level ridge will finally break down by the middle of
   this week, finally signaling a pattern shift.
- An upper-level trough will shift south through mid to late week
   and bring improving rain chances while also tempering the heat.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
More in the way of upper-level cloud cover today in addition to an
expanding cu field hasn`t prevented temperatures from warming into
the lower and middle 90s this afternoon. Compared to the past few
days around this time, isolated afternoon convection appears to be
a bit more delayed in developing but have maintained slight chance
PoPs across most of our western zones throughout the remainder of
today. Otherwise, look for hot and dry conditions to persist with
another near repeat performance on Monday as high temperatures are
expected to top out in the lower to mid 90s once again. As for any
convection on Monday afternoon, it appears our northern zones will
see the best chance for isolated showers and a few thunderstorms
as a weak sfc trough across Arkansas will enhance the low-level
convergence along with increasing instability in the afternoon.
As we move throughout the remainder of the week, we should see a
gradual trend toward slightly lower temperatures and better rain
chances across a more broad area of the region as the upper-level
ridge breaks down over time and an upper trough fills the void.
This trough will push even deeper into the region by the end of
the week and next weekend, providing a welcome pattern shift from
what has been a rather extended period of above normal heat and
little to no rainfall. As a result, we can expect more seasonable
temperatures by mid to late week and especially for next weekend
with improving rain chances to boot. It also appears a cold front
will eventually make its way into the region, but confidence isn`t
exactly high on just when that front will finally clear the region
and usher in a fresh air mass just in time for the official start
of the fall season.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
For the 14/18z TAFs...A high deck of cirrostratus has developed
mainly along and east of the 1-49 corridor this morning. This
cloud cover should continue through the day and into the overnight
hours. There is some pop-up convection that is expected to
develop over the next 6 hours that will mostly stay in the west
and central part of the CWA. These showers will begin to dissipate
soon after sunset tonight. Winds will stay light and variable
through the period, weakening slightly overnight.
/57/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  72  96  73  95 /   0   0   0  20
MLU  70  96  71  95 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  68  93  67  93 /   0  20   0  20
TXK  71  95  71  95 /   0  20   0  20
ELD  68  95  68  95 /   0  20  10  20
TYR  70  91  70  91 /   0   0   0  20
GGG  69  93  69  93 /   0   0   0  20
LFK  70  93  70  94 /   0  10   0  20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...19
AVIATION...33

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion