Flat Rock, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

044
FXUS64 KHUN 280833
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
333 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
...New NEAR TERM...
.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Tranquil conditions across the Tennessee Valley early this
morning with high pressure at the surface in control of our
sensible weather. Some patchy river valley fog was noted on
satellite data in far northeast Alabama, but coverage is far lower
than yesterday. This fog should dissipate an hour or two after
sunrise and stay confined to immediate areas along the rivers and
lakes. A mostly sunny, dry, and warm day will then be on tap for
this final Sunday in September. Daytime highs will again warm into
the low to mid 80s -- with a few upper 80s readings possible in
portions of northwest and north central Alabama.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Attention turns to the tropics for the remainder of the forecast.
What is known at this point is that the Southeastern US coast is
at risk for heavy rainfall through at least the early part of the
week. Those getting a jump start on fall break and heading out
that way should pay very close attention to the forecast. Have an
alternative plan, not it`s not at the point of completely
canceling original plans right now.
In terms of how the future tropical system, likely to be named
Imelda, will impact the TN Valley, this is dependent on how far
west it tracks. There is consensus among guidance that as Imelda
tracks northward, it will cause the southern extent of the
shortwave trough over the Northeast to retrograde westward. As a
result, low rain chances of 10-20% for primarily northeast
Alabama will be present Monday night into Tuesday. High temps will
stay in the low to mid 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Looking into the long term forecast, there is a more uncertain
forecast, as is common with tropical systems at this time range.
There are a lot of key synoptic features at play that have the
potential to significantly change the impacts felt by the
Southeast. One of these is the aforementioned shortwave trough
over the Northeast and if it is able to "absorb" Imelda and pull
the track eastward before making landfall. Another feature is
Hurricane Humberto, currently a Major Category 5 Hurricane out in
the Atlantic (posing no threat to the CONUS), and whether or not
we may see a Fujiwara interaction. A final feature (at least that
I`ll mention here, although there is no shortage of features
worth discussing, but I`ll leave that to the NHC) is a shortwave
trough pushing across the Southern Plains. Will this become a cut
off low and help push Imelda out to sea, or remain an open wave
and phase with Imelda and the Northeastern trough? Much to analyze
in the coming days!
For now, will keep the forecast with a 10-20% chance of rain for
areas primarily along and east of I-65 for Tuesday and Wednesday.
As a measure of reasonable worst-case scenarios, analyses of the
grand ensemble (100 weather model members) shows that the high-end
scenario would be near 0.75" of rain and wind gusts of 20-25 mph
mid-week. Most likely, only far northeast Alabama will see any
rain and winds will remain mild. That is for us locally; if you
have family or friends in the coastal Carolinas, help them keep
track of the forecast for their area by keeping up with their
local NWS office, the official NHC forecasts, and any favorite
local or national broadcast meteorologists.
Temperatures will take a bit of a dive heading into late this
week, with highs in the low 70s and low temperatures from the
upper 40s to low 50s. This will either be the result of cloud
cover and cooler air pulled southward from Imelda if it lingers,
or the result of a CAD setup with surface high pressure settling
over the Northeast. Either way, late next week will be a good
taste of Autumn for the TN Valley.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with light winds
and a mostly clear sky.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...AMP

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion