Forney, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

445
FXUS64 KFWD 240004
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
704 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A cold front is moving into North Texas at this time, increasing
  storm chances through tonight across much of the region. Some
  storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail.
- There is a 30-50% chance of isolated rainfall totals near 4-5"
  in parts of East Texas through tomorrow afternoon. Heavy
  rainfall may cause flash flooding.
- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through
  Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
/Through Wednesday Night/
A period of unsettled weather will begin late this afternoon and
continue through tomorrow as a strong upper level trough moves
through the southern Plains. At the surface, recent analysis show
a low pressure system over central OK with the associated cold
front extending towards the southwest (just outside of our CWA,
near Wichita Falls). This front will continue its slowly
progression east/southeast this afternoon and evening with
showers and storms developing near and along the front mainly
west of I-35/35W and north of I-20. Not much has changed in terms
of the potential for severe weather late afternoon through the
evening hours. We`re still thinking areas generally along and
north of I-20, especially along the Red River and northeast TX.
Scattered large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards.
There`s still a low tornado threat across our northeast counties
near the Red River through this evening, however the best low-
level wind field is expected to remain north of our area in NE OK
and NW AR where the Enhanced Risk of severe storms is located.
As the upper level trough progresses eastward overnight into
Wednesday morning, we will see the coverage of showers and storms
increase across the region. The combination of large scale
ascent, high PWs, sufficient mixed-layer CAPE, and the alignment
of the 25-30 kt WSW low-level flow will continue to fuel showers
and storms to develop along and behind the front. While the severe
risk will decrease overnight, the threat for locally heavy rain
and flooding may increase especially for areas east of I-35 as the
front pushes south and additional rain develops. Several of the
CAMs show the potential for very isolated rainfall totals of 5"+
in the next 24-36 hrs. At this time the chances are around 20-25%
mainly across our far eastern counties. Make sure to have multiple
ways to receive warnings and don`t drive through flooded roads.
Most of the activity will shift to Central Texas in the afternoon
and south of our area into the evening hours. A few strong to
marginally severe storms are possible with a hail and
gusty/damaging wind threat in addition to locally heavy rainfall.
Low rain chances will continue Wednesday night, but most of the
activity will be out of our area. The combination of rain, clouds,
and northerly winds will keep the daytime highs on Wednesday in
the mid 70s to mid 80s.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
/Thursday through Early Next Week/
The rest of the week remains fairly quiet and pleasant with
daytime highs staying in the 80s through Friday and no rain
expected. A slow warm up is forecast over the weekend, but
temperatures will likely stay in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees
in the far western zones. We will remain sandwiched between the
upper low that will move toward the eastern US and another
digging trough to our west. Overall, subsidence will prevail over
our region with plenty of sunshine and no rain chances through
early next week.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
A cluster of scattered thunderstorms is now west of the D10
TRACON with individual storm motion to the east. The cluster
itself will continue to gradually shift southeast as a cold front
advances south out of Oklahoma. As of 00z, the front`s position
extended from Pauls Valley, OK to Wichita Falls, TX. This front
will arrive at all North Texas TAF sites closer to 03z with
scattered thunderstorms along its leading edge. As the storms move
through, there will be a threat for lightning, hail and gusty
winds.
After the front moves through, northerly winds will arrive and
persist through the duration of this TAF cycle. A secondary wave
of precipitation will arrive closer to sunrise Wednesday with
scattered showers and isolated storms across North Texas. At this
time, no thunder will be advertised in the TAF, however, if
probability for lightning within the vicinity of the TAFs
increases, adjustments to the forecast will be made.
As the morning wave moves south, it will impact KACT around 11z
with the greatest potential for rain closer between 16z-20z. A
gradual clearing of rain from north to south is expected with a
return to VFR after a brief period of MVFR.
Hernandez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be requested this evening through tonight
mainly for areas north of I-20. Even if activation is not locally
requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National
Weather Service are appreciated.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    71  82  65  83  64 /  80  60   5   0   0
Waco                74  82  65  83  61 /  50  70  20   5   0
Paris               70  80  62  80  59 /  80  50   5   5   0
Denton              68  82  61  83  58 /  80  50   5   0   0
McKinney            70  81  62  82  60 /  80  60   5   0   0
Dallas              72  83  66  83  64 /  80  70   5   0   0
Terrell             71  81  63  82  60 /  80  70  10   0   0
Corsicana           74  84  66  84  63 /  60  80  10   5   0
Temple              74  84  65  85  60 /  30  70  30   5   0
Mineral Wells       69  84  61  84  58 /  80  60   5   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for
TXZ091>095.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion