Your favorites:

Forney, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

445
FXUS64 KFWD 240004
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 704 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A cold front is moving into North Texas at this time, increasing storm chances through tonight across much of the region. Some storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail.

- There is a 30-50% chance of isolated rainfall totals near 4-5" in parts of East Texas through tomorrow afternoon. Heavy rainfall may cause flash flooding.

- Near normal temperatures will return Wednesday through Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ /Through Wednesday Night/

A period of unsettled weather will begin late this afternoon and continue through tomorrow as a strong upper level trough moves through the southern Plains. At the surface, recent analysis show a low pressure system over central OK with the associated cold front extending towards the southwest (just outside of our CWA, near Wichita Falls). This front will continue its slowly progression east/southeast this afternoon and evening with showers and storms developing near and along the front mainly west of I-35/35W and north of I-20. Not much has changed in terms of the potential for severe weather late afternoon through the evening hours. We`re still thinking areas generally along and north of I-20, especially along the Red River and northeast TX. Scattered large hail and damaging winds will be the main hazards. There`s still a low tornado threat across our northeast counties near the Red River through this evening, however the best low- level wind field is expected to remain north of our area in NE OK and NW AR where the Enhanced Risk of severe storms is located.

As the upper level trough progresses eastward overnight into Wednesday morning, we will see the coverage of showers and storms increase across the region. The combination of large scale ascent, high PWs, sufficient mixed-layer CAPE, and the alignment of the 25-30 kt WSW low-level flow will continue to fuel showers and storms to develop along and behind the front. While the severe risk will decrease overnight, the threat for locally heavy rain and flooding may increase especially for areas east of I-35 as the front pushes south and additional rain develops. Several of the CAMs show the potential for very isolated rainfall totals of 5"+ in the next 24-36 hrs. At this time the chances are around 20-25% mainly across our far eastern counties. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings and don`t drive through flooded roads.

Most of the activity will shift to Central Texas in the afternoon and south of our area into the evening hours. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible with a hail and gusty/damaging wind threat in addition to locally heavy rainfall. Low rain chances will continue Wednesday night, but most of the activity will be out of our area. The combination of rain, clouds, and northerly winds will keep the daytime highs on Wednesday in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 206 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/ /Thursday through Early Next Week/

The rest of the week remains fairly quiet and pleasant with daytime highs staying in the 80s through Friday and no rain expected. A slow warm up is forecast over the weekend, but temperatures will likely stay in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the far western zones. We will remain sandwiched between the upper low that will move toward the eastern US and another digging trough to our west. Overall, subsidence will prevail over our region with plenty of sunshine and no rain chances through early next week.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/ /00z TAFs/

A cluster of scattered thunderstorms is now west of the D10 TRACON with individual storm motion to the east. The cluster itself will continue to gradually shift southeast as a cold front advances south out of Oklahoma. As of 00z, the front`s position extended from Pauls Valley, OK to Wichita Falls, TX. This front will arrive at all North Texas TAF sites closer to 03z with scattered thunderstorms along its leading edge. As the storms move through, there will be a threat for lightning, hail and gusty winds.

After the front moves through, northerly winds will arrive and persist through the duration of this TAF cycle. A secondary wave of precipitation will arrive closer to sunrise Wednesday with scattered showers and isolated storms across North Texas. At this time, no thunder will be advertised in the TAF, however, if probability for lightning within the vicinity of the TAFs increases, adjustments to the forecast will be made.

As the morning wave moves south, it will impact KACT around 11z with the greatest potential for rain closer between 16z-20z. A gradual clearing of rain from north to south is expected with a return to VFR after a brief period of MVFR.

Hernandez

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested this evening through tonight mainly for areas north of I-20. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 71 82 65 83 64 / 80 60 5 0 0 Waco 74 82 65 83 61 / 50 70 20 5 0 Paris 70 80 62 80 59 / 80 50 5 5 0 Denton 68 82 61 83 58 / 80 50 5 0 0 McKinney 70 81 62 82 60 / 80 60 5 0 0 Dallas 72 83 66 83 64 / 80 70 5 0 0 Terrell 71 81 63 82 60 / 80 70 10 0 0 Corsicana 74 84 66 84 63 / 60 80 10 5 0 Temple 74 84 65 85 60 / 30 70 30 5 0 Mineral Wells 69 84 61 84 58 / 80 60 5 0 0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095.

&&

$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion

WeatherForYou.com, LLC is not responsible for any damages or problems caused by this service. Current weather conditions are obtained from the closest government operated station, a personal station contributing to the PWSweather.com network or from the Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS). Some weather information is powered by XWeather. WeatherForYou.com, NOAA, AerisWeather and their data providers disclaim liability of any kind whatsoever, including, without limitation, liability for quality, performance, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose arising out of the use or inability to use the data. Like all things, this site belongs to Jesus Christ ... He just trusts us to maintain it. If you have any questions or comments please use the suggestion box.

Copyright © 1999 - 2025, WeatherForYou.com LLC. All rights reserved.