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Fort Bliss, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

070
FXUS64 KEPZ 031122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 522 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

- Warm and dry weather through the weekend. Lowland highs in the upper eighties/lower nineties.

- Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle part of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Issued at 1003 PM MDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Pretty quiet start to the forecast period as high pressure and/or dry southwest flow aloft dominates. Then some "noise" enters mid portion of next week. For tonight and Friday, Mexican high pressure ridge that has built over New Mexico begins to drift east in response to Pacific trough moving in. However main result is still dry southwest flow aloft over the CWA. Models do continue to show a sliver of moisture being drawn northward in this flow over the area, and with some of the CAMS models showing showers/tstms late afternoon and evening Friday, have put low POPs in grids west of the Cont Divide to reflect this. Otherwise dry through Monday with high temps about 5-7 degrees above normal.

Things get interesting Monday night and beyond. What will be tropical Priscilla moves up toward the southern Baja. While her moisture contribution is minimal, she pushes much of the dry southwest stream over us to our northwest and allows mid level south/southeast flow to advect sub-tropical moisture into our area. By Monday night and Tuesday, dewpoints increase back into the 50s across the CWA and pretty much remains in place the remainder of next week. Also by Monday night and Tuesday, PWs are back over an inch after ranging in the .5-.7 inch mark this weekend. Thus, POPs begin popping up many of the forecast zones Monday night. Priscilla sheds more moisture up Thursday and Friday but most of this looks to head into Arizona. Both GFS/ECMWF continue to move the last remnants of Priscilla up over Arizona though timing is significantly different. Because of this rain chances beyond Thursday still well up in the air.

&&

.AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VMC expected to prevail through forecast period. Surface winds 130-160 at 08-12 knots today. KTCS could see gusts as high as 25 knots mid-afternoon. Skies FEW-SCT100 with isolated TSRA along the AZ/NM state line between 22-04Z. No impacts to local terminals expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 530 AM MDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Low fire danger through the forecast period due to post-monsoon soil moisture. Warm temperatures today with min RH 20-30%. 20-ft winds out of the southeast 10 to 15 mph leading to Very Good ventilation. Very isolated showers along the AZ/NM state line this evening, minimal lightning risk for GNF.

Dry weather continues over the weekend, with min RH falling to 15-25%. Breezy conditions Saturday afternoon, with southwest winds 15 to 20 mph across central New Mexico. We could have a couple hours of Elevated fire danger due to wind and dryness. Winds become lighter on Sunday, remaining out of the southwest 10 to 15 mph.

Southeast winds and isolated showers and thunderstorms next week, especially Tuesday/Wednesday when moisture increases. Temperatures will remain warmer than usual for early October.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 65 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 85 58 86 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 86 56 85 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 61 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 43 64 44 63 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 59 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 55 78 51 77 / 10 0 0 0 Deming 59 89 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 61 85 56 83 / 10 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 65 89 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 57 89 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 62 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 58 82 59 80 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 62 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 61 87 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 62 87 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 59 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 59 89 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 60 89 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 58 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 48 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 49 76 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 46 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 49 77 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 84 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 56 85 53 82 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 51 78 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 55 82 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 Cliff 59 85 52 82 / 10 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 80 48 78 / 20 0 0 0 Faywood 56 81 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 61 86 55 85 / 10 0 0 0 Hachita 59 86 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 60 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 59 80 53 78 / 10 0 0 0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. &&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion

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