Fort Klamath, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

526
FXUS66 KMFR 152132
AFDMFR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
232 PM PDT Mon Sep 15 2025
.DISCUSSION...Ridging is starting to build and the warming trend
begins. Most areas are in for a 5-10 degree warm up compared to
Sunday, and this is getting temperatures back to near or slightly
above normal. A thermal trough near the coast will also bring
warmer temperatures to the area, with southern Curry County near
Brookings in for temperatures in the mid-/upper 70s and low 80s.
A trend of warmer mornings begins tomorrow. This will bring lows in
the 50s west of the Cascades with more 40s and some 30s east.
Although temperatures in northern Klamath and Lake counties will be
near freezing tonight, the forecast winds of 3-7 mph will be enough
to see minimal effects, so not going for a Frost Advisory tonight.
Tuesday will be the warmest in the period for areas west of the
Cascades as the ridge is at its strongest. There is an 85-95% chance
to see 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon for the Rogue and Illinois
Valleys and Umpqua Basin. East winds into the morning will also
bring the RHs to the teens and low 20s for the afternoon.
Wednesday will have the warmest temperatures for areas east of the
Cascades as the thermal trough continues moving inland. Newer
guidance is favoring temperatures to stay warmer for the Rogue
Valley as well, with a 80-90% probability to see 90 degrees there.
Therefore, the Rogue Valley will still hit 90 degrees Wednesday
afternoon along with the Klamath River Valley. The next chance for
precipitation could be into Friday near the Cascades, but model
differences are still present, so this will be monitored.
&&
.AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...Lingering areas of MVFR ceilings in the
Umpqua Basin will gradually improve to VFR by 19-20z. VFR conditions
prevail for the remainder of the area and will do so through the TAF
period. This includes along the coast where offshore flow will keep
the marine stratus from reforming. Gusty north winds are expected
along the coast today, especially north of Cape Blanco where gusts
of 25-30 kts are expected this afternoon. /BR-y
&&
.MARINE...Updated 215 PM PDT Monday, September 15, 2025...
A thermal trough will continue to bring gusty northerly winds and
steep seas through early Tuesday morning. Below advisory seas are
expected Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon.
Then gusty northerly winds with possible gale gusts in the outer
waters south of Cape Blanco are forecast to build Wednesday night
into Thursday. Uncertainty in the forecast increases on Friday with
a front likely to disrupt or at least weaken the northerly flow
pattern into the weekend. -DW/Hermansen
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, September 15, 2025...A
sharp warming and drying trend is underway today with an upper level
ridge and thermal trough inducing easterly flow through early
Wednesday. Moderate to locally poor recoveries are expected through
Wednesday morning, with recoveries expected to be lowest on Tuesday
morning. Winds will weaken Tuesday night, but as drier air spreads
eastward, more areas will see moderate to locally poor recoveries on
Wednesday morning as well. Current guidance bottoms out RH
recoveries in the 30-40% range (down to 25% for some of the higher
peaks), with winds gusting to 15-25 mph. This doesn`t quite reach
criteria for watch/warning products, and typically it needs to be at
least a few nights in a row to get the RHs to really drop low
enough. As such, we`ll be maintaining a headline for this event in
the Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWFMFR). Meanwhile, daytime
humidities will trend lower with teens/low 20s common across the
region. Min RHs bottom out on Tuesday, and if winds align with
favored valleys (namely the Illinois Valley), winds/RH values could
near critical conditions on Tuesday afternoon. Overall, RHs will
trend higher Wednesday into Thursday, slowest to improve east of the
Cascades.
Another upper level trough will approach the region on Wednesday and
this may result in some enhanced afternoon breezes for inland areas
with temperatures trending less warm Wednesday into Thursday. There
could be another round of northeasterly winds Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, but recoveries will continue the improving trend
compared to early in the week. The approaching trough looks to stall
offshore in response to the remnants of Tropical Storm Mario moving
northward along the California coast, then gets swept into the main
flow late week and into the weekend. This pattern could bring the
return of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday. There`s some
uncertainty in how far north and west this moisture gets. As the
moisture moves northward, thunderstorms could return to portions of
northern California as early as Thursday, then potentially into
portions of the East Side on Friday. It`s far too early and there is
plenty of uncertainty in the details to pinpoint timing and location
of potential thunderstorms, so have left them out of the forecast
for the time being. Will see how future model runs evolve before
adding details to the forecast, but this will be a time period worth
watching. /BR-y
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.
&&
$$

NWS MFR Office Area Forecast Discussion