Fort Thomas, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

847
FXUS65 KTWC 081703
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1003 AM MST Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Modest drying will allow a reduction in shower and
thunderstorm activity this week. Still just enough moisture for
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms each day, generally in
the higher terrain and to the south and east of Tucson. Expect some
breezes Wednesday and Thursday. Most of the week will have near
normal temperatures.
&&
.UPDATE...No changes to the forecast this morning. Mostly clear
skies continue over southeast Arizona, but that will quickly change
this afternoon with scattered cumulus development expected. There is
a slight chance (10-25%) for these cloud buildups to turn into
isolated afternoon pulse showers and thunderstorms mainly forced
over the higher terrain south of Tucson. As we have seen over the
past few days, storms that are able to get going are unlikely to be
prolonged. Rather, they will only result in at best brief localized
downpours. However, perhaps there is enough juice remaining to
locally squeeze out a quick three quarters of an inch of rain
resulting in flowing water in a few arroyos. Overall, expect
noticeably less storm coverage this afternoon compared to the
previous few days. For additional details on the extended forecast
refer to the previous discussion below.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 AM MST Sun Sep 7 2025/
Clear skies this morning across southeast Arizona. The main story
this week is a gradual transition out of our more typical monsoon
pattern into a more fall-like weather regime. As is often the
case in September, we still have some lingering moisture to deal
with so precipitation chances aren`t completely done yet.
While the subtropical high has moved to our south and the region is
under westerly flow aloft, lower level moisture continues to be
recycled and similar to what we saw yesterday, this moisture will be
just enough to result in a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms (10% to 20% chance) over the higher terrain from
Tucson south and eastward this afternoon. While the mountains will
be favored, a few showers or thunderstorms could make it into the
valleys especially in Santa Cruz County. Overall coverage should be
a little bit less than what we had yesterday with most locales
staying dry and highs near normal.
Not much change on Tuesday to our overall weather pattern with
slight chances for showers and thunderstorms (around 10%) once again
in the Sky Islands and from Nogales eastward into Cochise County.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees compared to today.
For Wednesday through Friday, our area will be between a subtropical
high across Texas and a slow moving longwave trough initially across
California and then into the Great Basin by Friday. This will place
our area under a more south to southwesterly mid level flow,
allowing moisture to pull northward from Sonora into Southeast
Arizona. This will result in a continuation of mainly afternoon and
evening shower and thunderstorm chances (peaking at 15% to 30%
chances Thursday) mainly from Tucson eastward. Meanwhile, the
pressure gradient will tighten up resulting in an uptick in
southwesterly breezes Wednesday and Thursday with gusts up to around
30 mph. Temperatures during this period will be near normal.
Westerly flow is progged to scour out the moisture for nearly the
entire forecast area this weekend. The one exception could be right
along the NM border. Near normal temperatures continue this weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms (-SHRA/-TSRA) aft 07/19Z, will
likely remain in the vicinity of KOLS, with low confidence impacting
the terminal directly today. With any storms today expect variable
and gusty winds up to around 35 knots. Besides storm influences,
winds should remain fairly light, generally less than 10-12 knots,
favoring northwesterly directions through the afternoon and resuming
typical overnight drainage patterns. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidities 15 to 30 percent much
of this week. Just enough moisture today and Tuesday for a slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms focused in the higher terrain
from Tucson south and eastward. Thereafter, slight chances of
showers and thunderstorms mainly from Tucson eastward mid to late
week before drying resumes again this weekend. Expect gusty and
erratic winds in or near any thunderstorms. Otherwise, surface winds
will be mostly light through Tuesday, with breezy to gusty winds
Wednesday- Thursday, bringing gusts to around 20-35 mph. High
temperatures near normal for most of this week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
Update...DVS
Discussion...Lader
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NWS TWC Office Area Forecast Discussion