Fort Wingate, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

065
FXUS65 KABQ 252338 AAA
AFDABQ
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- A storm system diving into the desert southwest will increase
  shower and thunderstorm coverage across western, southern and
  some central parts of the forecast area Friday before spreading
  to most of the forecast area this weekend.
- Much of the area from the east slopes of the central mountain
  chain westward will likely receive overall rain amounts between
  0.25 to 0.75 of an inch with locally higher amounts around 1
  inch, except potentially near 2 inches in higher terrain
  locations south of I-40. The greatest concern for flash flooding
  will be on and downstream of the Ruidoso area burn scars.
- Some scattered showers and storms across central areas Monday
  before dry and tranquil fall weather returns areawide to close
  out September and begin October.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
An upper level low pressure system will drop southeastward over
the CA/AZ border tonight, then remain stalled there through Friday
night. While there, the system will draw rich subtropical
northward over western and central parts of the forecast area
with PWATs peaking around 125-200% of normal. After scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms in the Glenwood area this
evening, widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
spread as far north as the Chuska Mountains along NM`s western
border overnight tonight. On Friday, numerous showers and
thunderstorms are forecast over southwest and west central parts
of the forecast area, with isolated to scattered activity as far
east as the central mountain chain and the east slopes of the
south central mountains. Most rain amounts are forecast to remain
under a quarter inch, but locally heavier amounts near 1 inch will
be possible in the southwest mountains, which could lead to
drainage problems; especially below recent burn scars. Increasing
cloud cover and precipitation will drop high temperatures as much
as 6 degrees below 30-year averages over western areas on Friday,
while highs over central and eastern areas vary from near to as
much as 6 degrees above average.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
The upper low will open into a trough as it exits northeastward
across the Four Corners and Colorado Sunday through Monday. The
system will spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
across much of the forecast area both Saturday and Sunday, with
scattered to isolated activity lingering over central areas on
Monday. Extensive cloud cover and high temperatures varying from
near to around 11 degrees below average will probably inhibit much
in the way of severe weather, and potentially also limit
occurrences of locally heavy rainfall from any single cell. There
will still be a risk of a spot or two receiving excessive
rainfall from training storms Saturday through Sunday evening,
especially the highly sensitive Ruidoso area burn scars. By Monday
evening, storm total rain amounts are forecast to vary around a
0.25-0.75" from the east slopes of the central mountain chain
westward with locally higher amounts potentially approaching 2
inches in the south central mountains and a few other fortunate
locations south of I-40.
In the wake of the upper trough, an active storm track over the
Pacific NW US will steer very dry air over NM from the southwest
with high temperatures climbing near to several degrees above
average across the forecast area by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
High level clouds from showers and storms across Arizona and
southwest NM will spread across much of the forecast area
overnight into Friday morning. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms will develop across the western and southern high terrain
early Friday afternoon with a general motion east and northeast
into nearby lower elevations, including KGUP and KGNT during the
mid to late afternoon hours. Outflow winds from storms across the
Chuska Mountains could impact KFMN at the end of the TAF period.
Outflow winds from storms across the Sacramento Mountains could
impact KROW during the mid to late afternoon hours. BKN to OVC mid
to high level clouds will dominate areas along and west of the
central mountain chain at the end of the TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1250 PM MDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Wetting precip will probably be pretty spotty over the far eastern
plains with the passing storm system this weekend. South and southwest
winds will then become seasonably gusty each afternoon in the
coming work week. Despite the drier air moving in, minimum
humidities are forecast to remain above 15 percent areawide
through mid week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  52  79  54  77 /   5  20   5  40
Dulce...........................  37  77  41  75 /   0  10   5  50
Cuba............................  46  75  48  73 /   0  40  20  80
Gallup..........................  47  74  47  71 /  20  70  40  70
El Morro........................  48  72  47  69 /  20  70  40  80
Grants..........................  47  75  47  73 /  10  70  40  80
Quemado.........................  49  74  46  72 /  30  70  50  60
Magdalena.......................  53  74  53  70 /  10  70  40  80
Datil...........................  49  72  47  69 /  20  80  50  80
Reserve.........................  48  79  48  76 /  60  70  60  50
Glenwood........................  53  82  52  77 /  70  70  60  50
Chama...........................  40  72  42  70 /   0  20   5  60
Los Alamos......................  51  73  52  69 /   0  20  10  70
Pecos...........................  47  76  50  70 /   0  20  10  60
Cerro/Questa....................  45  74  47  73 /   0   5   5  30
Red River.......................  37  65  40  62 /   0   5   0  40
Angel Fire......................  30  69  33  66 /   0  10   0  40
Taos............................  41  77  44  75 /   0  10   5  40
Mora............................  42  74  45  68 /   0  20   5  60
Espanola........................  47  80  49  76 /   0  20  10  60
Santa Fe........................  51  76  53  72 /   0  20  10  60
Santa Fe Airport................  47  79  50  75 /   0  20  10  60
Albuquerque Foothills...........  59  82  59  76 /   0  30  20  70
Albuquerque Heights.............  55  83  58  78 /   0  30  20  60
Albuquerque Valley..............  54  85  57  80 /   0  30  20  60
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  56  83  58  78 /   0  20  20  60
Belen...........................  53  84  55  79 /   0  30  30  60
Bernalillo......................  53  85  56  80 /   0  20  20  60
Bosque Farms....................  52  84  54  79 /   0  30  20  60
Corrales........................  55  85  57  80 /   0  20  20  60
Los Lunas.......................  53  84  55  79 /   0  30  20  60
Placitas........................  54  80  56  75 /   0  20  20  60
Rio Rancho......................  55  84  57  79 /   0  20  20  60
Socorro.........................  58  85  58  79 /   5  50  40  70
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  50  77  50  71 /   0  30  20  70
Tijeras.........................  52  77  53  73 /   0  30  20  70
Edgewood........................  45  79  49  73 /   0  20  20  70
Moriarty/Estancia...............  42  79  48  73 /   0  20  20  70
Clines Corners..................  47  75  50  70 /   0  20  20  60
Mountainair.....................  49  77  50  71 /   0  40  30  70
Gran Quivira....................  48  77  50  71 /   0  40  30  70
Carrizozo.......................  55  79  55  74 /   0  40  40  70
Ruidoso.........................  52  72  51  68 /   0  50  40  80
Capulin.........................  45  76  48  72 /   0   0   0  10
Raton...........................  42  79  47  75 /   0   0   0  20
Springer........................  42  81  47  77 /   0   5   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  44  77  48  71 /   0  10   5  50
Clayton.........................  50  82  53  80 /   0   0   0   5
Roy.............................  46  79  50  76 /   0   5   0  20
Conchas.........................  50  87  55  81 /   0   5   0  20
Santa Rosa......................  50  83  54  76 /   0  10  10  40
Tucumcari.......................  50  85  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
Clovis..........................  54  87  59  84 /   0   0   0  20
Portales........................  53  87  59  85 /   0   0   0  20
Fort Sumner.....................  53  85  58  81 /   0   5   5  30
Roswell.........................  56  88  61  84 /   0  10  10  40
Picacho.........................  53  82  56  78 /   0  30  20  60
Elk.............................  51  80  53  75 /   0  40  30  70
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...71

NWS ABQ Office Area Forecast Discussion