Foster, West Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

103
FXUS61 KRLX 191940
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
340 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and mostly dry weather prevails into the weekend under
high pressure. Chances of rain and storms return next week, with
more widespread activity expected from mid to late week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...
High pressure and an upper level ridge will sustain dry
conditions across the area throughout the day, with relative
humidity values lowering into the 25 to 35 percent range across
most of the area this afternoon and evening. In spite of dry
conditions, light winds will help to limit fire weather
concerns.
Patchy fog is possible for some of the river valleys again late
tonight into early Saturday morning, though extent may be
curtailed by dry air and a gradual increase in cloud cover from
the west.
On Saturday, a frontal boundary hovers to the north while a low
pressure system ambles towards the Great Lakes along the
US/Canada border. Within the forecast area, the presence of dry
low-level air should keep the majority of the area
precipitation free; however, there is a low probability of a few
diurnally driven showers in the vicinity of the mountains
Saturday afternoon and evening. Any activity would then taper
off with the loss of daytime heating.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...
Upper ridging recedes from the area while a weak shortwave
passes to the west on Sunday. Although this disturbance could
prompt an isolated shower or storm mainly to the west of the
Ohio River, residual dry low-level air is expected to suppress
precipitation potential. A gradual increase in moisture ahead of
another shortwave then allows more widespread precipitation
chances to develop on Monday, primarily in the afternoon and
evening hours.
Temperatures remain above normal through early next week, with
daily highs reaching 80s in the lowlands and mid 60s to low 80s
in the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1245 PM Friday...
Moisture continues to increase as a system passes to the north and
pulls a front down towards the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Precipitation chances are expected to overspread the area in
advance of the front, then shower and thunderstorm activity
remains possible throughout the area as another system tracks
out of the central US and into the Ohio Valley Region mid to
late week.
Temperatures moderate into mid week, with near to slightly above
normal highs expected each day through the end of the work week.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1255 PM Friday...
VFR conditions will continue into the first part of the night, then
patchy fog may form in some of the river valleys late tonight into
early Saturday morning. Confidence in the extent of fog is low
as dry air and a gradual increase in cloud cover to the west could
hinder development. At this point, EKN is the most likely site
to experience restrictions due to fog tonight. Areawide VFR
then returns once fog dissipates between 12-14Z Saturday.
Winds remain light throughout the valid TAF period, with a
northerly direction becoming easterly overnight. Winds will then
maintain an east to southeast direction on Saturday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, high.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog lifting could vary.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Compared to historical records and the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate
Normals, it was a very warm summer across the NWS Charleston
forecast area. The summer season encapsulates the period of June
1st through August 31st. Mean temperatures for the 2025 summer
season were generally 1 to 3 degrees above normal. This translated
into four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the
top 10 in terms of their warmest mean summer temperatures on record.
As is typical during the summer season, precipitation totals
varied rather significantly across the forecast area depending
on location, ranging from as low as 7 to 9 inches in portions of
southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky, to as high as 16 to nearly
20 inches across some locations in the lowlands of West Virginia
and northeast mountains. This resulted in a wide range of
precipitation departures depending on location, with some areas
ending up well below normal in terms of total precipitation,
while others well above normal, with the overall spread of
departures ranging from approximately +/- 5 inches. Even with
this wide range of precipitation totals across the forecast area,
no top 10s were set at any of the official NWS Charleston climate
locations in terms of wettest or driest summer on record.
Summer 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------------
  Location             Top 10 Rank                Observed Value
- Elkins, WV         : 2nd Warmest             -> 72.1 F
- Huntington, WV     : 4th Warmest             -> 77.9 F
- Clarksburg, WV     : Tied 4th Warmest        -> 74.5 F
- Beckley, WV        : 6th Warmest             -> 71.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------------
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20
CLIMATE...GW

NWS RLX Office Area Forecast Discussion