Fowler, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

135
FXUS65 KPUB 270500
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1100 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Similarly warm on Saturday, with showers over and near the
mountains.
- Showers and thunderstorms expected across the higher terrain  this
weekend through Monday morning, with a focus along the  Continental
Divide and even moreso for the eastern San Juans  on Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 244 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Rest of Today and Tonight...
Dry and warm across the area, other than scattered showers lingering
over the San Juans for a few hours into this evening. Overnight lows
in the valleys will be a bit warmer than the last few days, greatly
limiting the chance for any frost formation into Saturday morning.
Saturday...
A closed upper low continues to slowly move in from our southwest,
which will start funneling monsoon moisture back into the mountains
this weekend. For Saturday, moisture funneling in from the south
will increase convective chances starting around midday, mainly over
the San Juans. As the upper low slowly shifts, showers and storms
will spread to the rest of the Continental Divide, San Luis Valley,
with an isolated shower or two pushing onto the southern I-25
corridor. Current SPC outlook just has general thunder over the
western portion of our CWA, with meager CAPE and a lack of good bulk
shear keeping showers and storms on the weaker side. Finally, high
temperatures will be a few degrees cooler than today, with 70s to
mid-80s across the area.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 303 AM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
Saturday...Upper low pressure system will remain centered over
southern CA through the day, continuing moisture advection up across
the Four Corners and into western CO. This will lead to
increasing convection chances across the higher terrain , with a
focus on the southwest mts. Plan on isolated showers and storms
developing across the eastern San Juans through late morning,
then becoming more scattered through the afternoon with isolated
activity then spreading to the remainder of the Continental
Divide, the Sangres and the san Luis Valley. SPC has painted an
area for General Thunder chances across all of the higher
terrain minus the Pikes Peak region. Look for high temps in the
70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the plains.
Saturday night through Monday...The upper low system to our
southwest will begin to weaken, open up and gradually push to the
northeast starting Saturday night, pushing across AZ on Sunday then
up across CO on Monday. Precipitation chances increase Sat night,
then bump up significantly on Sunday for all of the higher terrain
with some activity possibly spilling over onto the I-25 Corridor.
Convection chances decrease for Monday as the open upper wave starts
to push northeast across the state, and by Mon evening activity
should come to an end. As for temps, Sunday and Monday will be
definitely cooler across the high valleys with increased cloud cover
and precip chances as the system passes overhead, but the eastern
plains are forecast to remain steady right around seasonal normals.
High will be in the 60s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to lower
to mid 80s for the plains.
Tuesday through Thursday...Long range models agree on a quick-moving
upper wave glancing by to the north on Tue, just producing some
isolated convection across the higher terrain, but then start to
disagree on the upper pattern for Wed and Thu. The extended
procedure output keeps conditions mainly dry across the forecast
area, with just hints of some isolated showers for the mts into late
week, while keeping seasonal temps in place for all of the forecast
area.  Moore
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM MDT Fri Sep 26 2025
At KCOS and KPUB, VFR the next 24 hrs. Weak cold front
overnight will enhance nly winds for a period from 06z-18z,
with some brief gusts to 20 kts possible at KCOS early Sat
morning. Winds swing around to the e-se after 18z, with some
gusts to 20 kts at both sites through the afternoon. Most
afternoon/early evening convection looks to stay west over the
higher terrain, though a couple CAMs show an isolated
shower/weak storm on the plains south of KPUB late in the day.
Won`t include anything in the taf at this point, though at least
a low potential for some gusty outflow winds at KPUB 23z-04z.
At KALS, VFR the next 24 hrs. Light winds overnight will turn
s-se Sat morning, with some gusts to 20 kts in the afternoon.
Increasing chance of convection across the Valley by late
afternoon, and will include a vcsh after 20z. Brief
erratic/gusty outflow winds the main hazard with any
showers/storms. Convection fades away after 03z, with lingering
upper level cloud cover overnight.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion