867 FXUS66 KHNX 200520 AFDHNXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1020 PM PDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.UPDATE... Updated Aviation Section.
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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures warm back up this weekend into next week.
2. Next chance of rain comes next week with a 20 to 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain in the Valley.
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.DISCUSSION...
Most of the rain from Mario has moved through the area with some areas with some areas getting some including Bakersfield at 0.07 inches total yesterday, Hanford eclipsing an inch as of earlier this morning, and China Lake receiving around 3.17 inches of rain. However, there is a 15 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert which will bring more rain there.
Temperatures warm up this weekend as whatever is left of Mario moves west and is absorbed a cutoff low in the Pacific and a ridge builds into the area. However, the cutoff low migrates east over California on Monday into Tuesday along with a trough over the Pacific Northwest. The cutoff low will bring in some rain on Tuesday with another chance of thunderstorms, however, there is a 20 to 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. The chances actually go up on Wednesday as the cutoff low phases into a trough moving in from the Gulf of Alaska and over the Pacific Northwest.
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.AVIATION... 06Z Update:
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours in the San Joaquin Valley. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms for the Sierra Nevada from 18Z Friday through 03Z Saturday.
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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None.
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.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
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NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion