Frazier, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

043
FXUS63 KFGF 170828
AFDFGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
328 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A wet period setting up from tonight thru Friday night, with
  focus for highest rainfall potential being southeast North
  Dakota and west central Minnesota. Outdoor activities plus
  ongoing harvest will be impacted to varying degrees.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
...Synopsis...
The upper air pattern has supported upper low development over
the Dakotas for the past week. The next one will be forming
today into tonight, as one 500 mb low is dropping south into
southeast Saskatchewan this morning and will meet up with an
upper low in Wyoming and form one upper low in central ND by
Thursday night. 00z model guidance and ensemble data via DESI
indicate potentially a strong enough 500 mb ridge builds east
and forces upper level wave more north-northeast into Manitoba
by Saturday and NW Ontario Sunday. But as it does overall
weakening trend is noted.
...Tonight-Friday night rain....
850 mb moisture will advect north and northwest around the
upper low with strongest advection Thursday into Friday morning.
Heaviest rainfall focused in southeast ND westward with
strongest deformation zone forcing roughly in the area just west
of the Missouri river from southern ND into SD. Elevated
instability Thursday of 500-800 j/kg MU CAPE does advect into
west central MN and southeast ND with 850 mb low and surface low
00z Fri in between Bismarck and Jamestown. So thunderstorms are
anticipated in SE ND and WC MN Thursday aftn/eve. Overalll upper
level and sfc low weaker than the most recent one that gave
tornadoes to central ND. Also less of a warm sector on east edge
of system. It is noted that 00z ECMWF and EC ensembles are about
12 hours slower with operational GFS and has higher instabiity
and rainfall more Thursday overnight and thru Friday. Track of
system will bring much lighter rain amounts to far northeast
fcst area, with peak in southeast ND. 00z ECMWF is more bullish
with heavier rain farther north/northwest than operational
Canadian and GFS. Rainfall forecasts from NBM and WPC are less
from their 00z Wed forecasts from 12z Tues. PWATS remain on the
high end of climatology with PWATS 1.2 to 1.6 inch range, above
the 90th percentile from NAEFS. ECMWF EFI has over 90th
percentile for rain amounts but back into south central ND into
central SD. So overall some differences in amount of rainfall,
which is not unusual, and likely also tied to convective
rainfall potential.
Rainfall chances being to lower Saturday and mostly dry
conditions Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR is anticipated throughout the TAF period. Light and variable
winds overnight could lead to a little patchy fog around KDVL
and KBJI, but predictability on if this happens is extremely
low.After sunrise tomorrow, a north/northeasterly wind of up to
10 knots will prevail, likely continuing after sunset as an
area of low pressure approaches the region from South Dakota. As
it nears, showers will break out, with VCSH at KFAR by the end
of the TAF period.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Rafferty

NWS FGF Office Area Forecast Discussion