Freemans Mills, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

023
FXUS62 KRAH 250002
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
802 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend from Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast
ahead of a couple of slow-moving cold fronts that will merge while
moving east across the Carolinas Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday...
Hot and generally dry.
A chance of a late day thunderstorm in the far NW-N Piedmont.
Hot and dry conditions are favored for most if not all the region
this afternoon. Temperatures early in the afternoon had already high
90 for most areas from RDU south and east. Additional mainly sunny
skies will lead to highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A few of the
CAMS depict a chance of a shower or storm later this afternoon into
the evening in the NW Piedmont. However, the chance will be tied to
the development of at least a few storms in the NW this afternoon
with subsequent activity tied to outflow boundaries favoring the
northern side of the Triad into VA. The extensive cloud shield to
our west and north will gradually build into the region later this
afternoon and tonight. A  couple of disturbances tracking NE along
the Appalachians may bring renewed chances of showers/iso
thunderstorms later in the evening or overnight in the NW. Expect a
warm night with the increase in clouds from the west. Lows
generally in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Wednesday...
Hot and increasingly unstable with a chance of PM thunderstorms.
Marginal risk of severe storms and isolated flooding.
All of central NC will be in the warm sector Thursday and Thursday
night out ahead of the cold front approaching from the NW. Continued
warm/moist advection through the low-levels will support
temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to mid 90s with an increase
in dew points as well. However, there are some models that
suggest extensive mid level cloudiness that may keep the heat
down a bit in the west on Thursday. Still, heat indices in
the mid 90s to near 100 are expected from the Triangle into the
Sandhills and southern/central Coastal Plain. Scattered
thunderstorms are expected with the highest probabilities in the
afternoon into the evening and mainly west of Interstate 95.
There is still a chance of mainly evening showers/storms Thursday
night, otherwise mostly cloudy with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.
&&.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 150 PM Wednesday...
* Pattern continues to favor a prolonged period of unsettled weather
  Fri through the weekend and perhaps into early next week
* Risk for periods of heavy rainfall through the weekend
* We continue to watch AL94, but its ultimate track remains uncertain
A prolonged period of wet weather appears favored still in the Fri
through Sun time period as an upper-low over the TN valley slowly
migrates to the east and northeast into western NC come Sun. A
moisture rich southerly flow will persist during this time (PW`s
around 2 inches at 140-150 percent of normal), along with ample
instability to favor potential periods of heavy rainfall, especially
late Fri through Sat. An upper-jet will be overhead as well,
favoring some enhanced lift aloft.
On Fri, scattered showers and storms look to develop along an old
outflow from Thu, perhaps more focused over eastern sections of
central NC. Favorable shear and instability could favor a few
isolated strong to severe storms, but we are not currently outlooked
at the moment. Additional showers will persist off/on into Sat
morning. The wettest period thus far looks to be Sat into Sun when
the region is in a more favorable location with respect to the
trough. This is also when forecast confidence is higher and model
spread is lower. Certainly cannot rule out a few strong storms also
on Sat, in addition to the heavy rainfall threat.
Heading into the early to middle of next week, forecast confidence
reduces dramatically, due in part to the aforementioned trough
position, a high trying to build down the Mid-Atlantic, and any
environmental shear over the Atlantic that could hamper the
development of AL94. All of these features play a role in the
tropical systems evolution. A decent set of clusters from the 00/06z
ensembles take AL94 near the Bahamas late Sun or early Mon, then
recurve the system to near Bermuda by midweek. There remains,
however, a set of solutions that track the system toward the NW near
the Carolinas early next week. It is a good time to stay weather
aware and check back regularly for updates on the latest trends in
the forecast. For now, an unsettled pattern may continue early next
week.
As for temperatures, above normal highs will persist Fri in the 80s.
A trend to more seasonal values is favored thereafter with 70s to
low 80s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM Wednesday...
Strengthening SW flow ahead of a slow moving trough and cold front
will bring increasing moisture and rain chances, especially across
across the western terminals.
At KINT and KGSO: A brief period of sub-VFR restrictions with
showers and isolated thunder is possible through midnight. MVFR CIGS
are expected to develop at KINT and KGSO around daybreak and should
lift to VFR by early afternoon. Another round of showers and storms
with restrictions is expected Thursday afternoon and evening.
At KRDU, VFR conditions are expected to prevail There is a low
chance for showers and storms late in the period, but confidence is
too low to include in the forecast at this time.
At KRWI and KFAY, while not as favorable as previous nights, mostly
clear skies will support a chance for IFR to MVFR restrictions in
fog and/or stratus around daybreak. Otherwise, dry VFR conditions
through the period.
Outlook: The probability of showers and storms with associated
flight restrictions will increase and overspread central NC on
Friday. Unsettled conditions are expected to linger into the
upcoming weekend and potentially into early next week as the slow-
moving trough and surface cold front gradually cross the region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...Kren
AVIATION...CBL

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion