Fritch, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

742
FXUS64 KAMA 200552
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1252 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
A marginal (5%) chance for severe thunderstorms exists this
evening. Hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards.
Thunderstorm chances remain on the lower side next week, but are
possible Monday through Thursday. Uncertainties remain concerning
next week`s upper level system.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Showers may begin as early as this morning according to some of
the most recent CAMs for the southern Texas Panhandle. Later this
afternoon and evening are when thunderstorms return to the area,
and the coverage is expected to range across most of the combined
Panhandles, but storm mode should only support isolated to
scattered storms. A favorable environment exists to support some
severe storms across the area, with the primary hazards being
large hail and damaging winds.
By tomorrow morning, thunderstorm activity should subside. Sunday
should be a drier day with less than 10% PoPs CWA wide after the
early morning hours. Highs both days should continue to range in
the upper 80`s and lower 90`s
Rangel
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The long term period will be dictated by the strength and position
of our incoming upper level troughs. Monday onward, two upper level
lows are expected to develop on the western and eastern sides of the
CONUS. A cold front from the eastern trough is forecast to impact
the High Plain by Tuesday and Wednesday. A notable decrease in
temperatures is expected, but there are still uncertainties
regarding our precipitation potential. The position of the upper
level systems will influence our moisture source. For now, PoPs have
been left alone due to these forecast inconsistencies.
Rangel
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
VFR conditions continue until thunderstorm activity begins
tomorrow afternoon. Chances for all sites to be impacted exist,
but the highest confidence is for AMA and DHT. PROB30 groups have
been introduced to highlight the potential impacts and our
current confidence.
Rangel
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion