Fulton, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

527
FXUS63 KGRR 030521
AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
121 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Hot and Dry through the Weekend
- Rain Chances Monday into Wednesday
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Hot and Dry through the Weekend
High pressure will continue through the weekend as we remain under
the upper level ridge. A trough approaching from the west will
help bring more southwesterly winds over the weekend. Hot
temperatures are expected Friday and through the weekend with the
potential for some records to be tied or broken (see the climate
section for the current records). Highs Friday are expected to be
in the mid to upper 80s. Similar temperatures are expected
Saturday with some spots approaching 90. Sunday 925 mb
temperatures are a little cooler so it may be harder to reach
record temperature levels, either way highs Sunday will still be
in the 80s. Overnight temperatures will be nice and cool with
overnight lows tonight in the 40s and 50s and through the rest of
the weekend in the 50s to low 60s.
- Rain Chances Monday into Wednesday
With the approaching trough we`ll be locked into southwest flow
bringing in moisture and the low level jet. A 850 mb boundary
looks to set up Sunday night into Monday over northwestern
portions of the area. This is also were we see 500mb positive
vorticity advection stream through periodically through Monday and
into Tuesday. This will be the main focus for showers and maybe a
few thunderstorms into Tuesday as it slowly tracks east. We`ll
have to keep an eye on the timing of the main trough as it clears
the area in the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe. So while the current
forecast does not have rain chances for Wednesday, there is a
chance that PoPs may need to be extended into Wednesday morning.
More fall like are looks to move in behind the trough with highs
in the 50s and 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025
Another forecast period dominated by VFR conditions in this
extended summer-like pattern. Skies have cleared out after 24
hours of high clouds over the area. Light winds at the sfc with
the clear skies will likely lead to some of the typical ground fog
at KJXN toward daybreak.
There looks to be a little more cumulus development today as
compared to previous days. The cumulus will not be as extensive at
KMKG and KGRR with a wind coming in from off of Lake Michigan from
the SW. The other sites will see more development, but it will
all be VFR. Any cumulus will dissipate toward sunset at the
terminals, and winds will back to the south and go light.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 144 PM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
5 to 15 knot winds between SE and SW are expected through Friday
along with 1 to 2 ft waves. Hazardous waves for small craft are
favored to develop near/north of Whitehall during the day
Saturday as south winds become breezier. Small craft advisory
conditions are also likely for Sunday into Monday.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 331 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Here are the record highs for Friday, Saturday, and Sunday for some
of our official climate sites. These records will be in jeopardy of
being broken with the warm weather expected those days.
                   Fri              Sat                  Sun
Grand Rapids    86 - 2023       87 - 1951          85 - 1946, 1922
Lansing         90 - 1898       86 - 1951, 1900    87 - 1922, 1900
Muskegon        85 - 2023       84 - 2023          83 - 2007
Kalamazoo       88 - 1953       90 - 1951          87 - 1922
Battle Creek    88 - 1953       87 - 1951          89 - 1900
Holland         86 - 1919       89 - 1951          85 - 2007
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...NJJ
MARINE...CAS
CLIMATE...NJJ

NWS GRR Office Area Forecast Discussion