Galivants Ferry, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

575
FXUS62 KILM 191857
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
257 PM EDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue into the weekend as high
pressure builds in. Near to slightly above normal temperatures from
Sunday into next week with low rain chances each day associated
with a coastal trough.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet weather will continue as high pressure extends down from
the north with a light northerly flow becoming calm into
tonight. In saying that, once again this afternoon, cu mainly
along the sea breeze built enough to support a shower or two.
Expect this again on Sat.
Similar to last night, lingering richer dewpoint air from the
sea breeze should lead to patchy fog across the area, especially
right at the pre-dawn hours. May see some low clouds as fog
lifts, but overall heading into anther mostly sunny day on
Saturday.
The center of the high to the distant north shifts eastward
through Sat while continuing to extend down into the Coastal
Carolinas. The trough offshore becomes more pronounced through
Sat and a couple of models are showing a weak low developing.
This will tighten the gradient later on Sat leading to an
slight increase in NE flow by Sat aftn with winds up to 10 mph
or so.
Temps will be in 60s once again tonight with above normal highs
tomorrow reaching into the 80s and near 90 near and west of
the I-95 coast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The mid level pattern will feature subtle ridging
building in slightly through early Monday then turning a bit to the
southwest late in the period. At the surface high pressure will
remain off to the northeast and any shower activity should remain
well offshore. Temperatures will remain very steady state with highs
in the lower to mostly middle 80s and lows in the middle 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Indications of a pattern change late next week remain
in place as  the mid level pattern will transition from a benign
weak westerly flow to southwest. This is a result of somewhat deep
and cutoff mid level low pressure developing in the Mississippi
Valley. Slight to low chance pops are in the forecast Wednesday and
Thursday increasing slightly to lower chance area wide by Friday.
Confidence is low however as these highly amplified patterns are
slow to shift. High temperatures may approach the upper 80s in
places early on shifting down in time with the increased moisture.
Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another quiet day across the terminals with high pressure
dominating. Light northerly flow will drop off tonight picking
up lightly through the morning hours. Expect mainly VFR except
for several hours of MVFR to IFR during the pre-dawn hours,
beginning around 06-08z Sat morning due to fog. Not as confident
with widespread fog across the area as winds may kick up just
enough before dawn but any fog will lift with some sct to bkn
low clouds up to 14z, followed by mostly sunny skies on Sat.
Should see sct aftn CU around 4-6k ft, especially focused along
sea breeze boundary into Sat aftn.
Extended Outlook...There is moderate potential for ground fog with
MVFR to IFR visibility or low stratus again Sunday morning mainly between
06-12z. Some potential for isolated showers may return early next week,
but confidence is low.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Saturday...
Very light northerly winds will allow the sea/land breeze to
dominate once again with onshore to SSE flow into early evening
becoming very light offshore overnight. Into Sat, the light NE
flow will pick up slightly as gradient tightens slightly between
high pressure extending down from the north and trough becoming
more pronounced offshore. A few models show a weak low developing
offshore. Winds will pick up out of the NE through Sat aftn,
but moreso later in the day. Seas 2 ft or less will increase a
foot or so by later Sat.
Saturday night through Tuesday...NE winds will be in place
Sunday into early Monday and remain somewhat elevated in a range
of 15-20 knots. With significant seas of 3-5 feet there is a
chance for a small craft advisory as well. The gradient will
weaken Monday and Tuesday with winds continuing from the
northeast. By midweek or so an onshore flow develops than shifts
to southwest late in the period due to an approaching system.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...SHK/RGZ

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion