806 FXUS63 KGLD 041948 AFDGLDArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 148 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong southerly winds will create hazardous travel conditions this afternoon, especially for high profile vehicles on west- to-east routes, such as I-70, where cross winds will be strongest. Localized reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust may exacerbate travel difficulties.
- Strong southerly winds could result in fire growth this afternoon, should any fires develop. Outdoor burning is not advised.
- Thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along and ahead of an approaching cold front in northeast Colorado late this afternoon and evening. A few severe storms capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible, mainly between ~4-9 pm MDT.
- 20-30% chance of storms Sunday afternoon along and east of a Hill City to Gove line; if storms develop severe weather is possible.
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.MESOSCALE... Issued at 140 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Corridor of intense winds gusting from 45 to near 60 mph and preconditioned soils have resulted in several small plumes of dust impacting several roads across the center portion of the area. These are not large walls of dust and are very localized to be near the source regions, making isolating particular areas impacted difficult if not impossible. As such have opted to issue an areal blowing dust warning for the time being instead of a more area specific dust storm warning. As you move away from individual dust source regions dust will become more lofted and diluted, resulting in poor air quality but better visibility.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 1249 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Winds are strengthening on schedule as a low pressure system over northeast Colorado deepens strengthening the low level wind fields. Wind gusts around 55 mph are most likely through the afternoon hours but would not be surprised if an isolated instance or two of 60 mph winds occurs somewhere in the forecast area. Some blowing dust is already occurring across the area mainly affecting fields and country roads. Expectations with the dust thus far are on par with reduction in visibilities staying confined to or near dust source regions. The dust is continuing to filter into the atmosphere due to lack of capping across the area due to high mixing heights and high 2-2.5km lapse rates. Localized brownout conditions still can`t be completely ruled out near source regions. Some fire weather conditions/spread still remains a concern especially with the winds this afternoon. Forecasted dew points are fairly aggressive and below most models as this is a typical set up for drier air aloft to mix down to the surface. Even with the forecast being on the drier side and warmer side of temperatures it was still a struggle to get humidity values down to 15% let alone for 3+ hours. Fuel partners did relay that fuels are still marginally cured across most of the area and despite the strong winds, humidity not falling into the 15% RH criteria more than likely was still not enough to warrant Red Flag Issuance. As a result a Special Fire Weather Statement via SPS was issued for the majority of the forecast area.
The next concern will be showers and storms developing across eastern Colorado around 22Z. Dry lightning may be a concern with this activity as well with PWATS around 0.75 and fast storm motions. CAPE in general however is weak which does make me question the amount of lightning that will be present. Severe weather may be possible as well with damaging winds of 65-70 mph the most likely severe hazard due to the wind field increasing as the 850mb jet increases just ahead of the cold front. The next hazard would be the potential for blowing dust possibly in the form of a haboob especially with outflows from storms. Confidence has increased slightly in this as the biggest change from the past 24 hours is that guidance is showing more of a pressure rise just behind the wind shift of 3-5mb over 3 hours with the NAM being the outlier at around 8mb over 3 hours. Large hail can`t be completely ruled out either due to the wind shear in place but it would more than likely take a longer lived and stronger updraft to keep keeping particles aloft longer to support hail growth. Freezing levels are still forecast around 12000-15000 feet which is a little low so its not completely out of the realm of possibility. Shower and storm chances look to gradually wane through the evening and further east convection pushes as drier air begins to filter in behind the front. Winds will also gradually wane as well behind the front as we lose the effects from the pressure rises.
Troughing continues through the day Sunday with breezy winds continuing behind in wake of the front but not nearly as windy as today with winds gusting up to 25 mph from the north. The front from today may stall out across southeastern portions of the area, which if it does then some severe weather may occur along and east of roughly a Hill City to Gove line with large hail and damaging winds the main threat. Current thinking is that the front will set up just south and east of the forecast area. Confidence in severe weather occurring is around 10% at this time. If severe weather were to occur the threat would be from around 4pm CT to 6pm CT before moving out. Overnight Sunday a stronger surge of cold air advection is forecast to occur which is forecast to increase winds a bit more than what occurred in the afternoon with gusts around 30-35 mph. Additional showers and storms may develop with this front as well overnight; severe weather looks unlikely to occur with that activity.
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.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 114 PM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
The extended period starts with much cooler temperatures in wake of the stronger cold front from Sunday night. High temperatures are currently forecast in the mid to upper 50s across most of the area Monday, but if cloud cover can remain thick enough then high temperatures may struggle to even make it to the 50s in spots. A surface high is forecast to push into the area from the north Monday night and into Tuesday morning which would lead to lighter winds and if clouds can clear out perhaps some frost concerns may creep into the area as well. Dependent on how quickly the front moves as well additional rain chances may ensue Monday night into Tuesday morning as well.
Through the remainder of the week guidance has started trending towards some ridging over the southern Plains as another system begins to develop across the western CONUS. If this trend does continue we could see another warm up towards middle portions of the week along with another uptick in winds as well. Current forecast has humidity values falling into the low 20s, if the speeds of the some low level jets can sync up then anther risk of some fire weather conditions may become realized.
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.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1051 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Wind is the main story for the day as winds gust 35-45 knots across the area impacting each terminal. Blowing dust is a concern as well so have added in tempo for GLD based on current observations and webcams showing some dust. Winds will continue into the evening with LLWS becoming a concern just ahead of a front with showers and storms along the front. The showers and storms have the potential to be severe as well with wind gusts of 50 knots or higher and potential for another threat of blowing dust. Confidence is higher for severe winds and dust for GLD than MCK. Winds will then shift to the north behind the front and gradually wane throughout the night.
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.FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 740 AM MDT Sat Oct 4 2025
Gusty to strong southerly winds are forecast to be in place across the area today with wind gusts around 50-55 mph. High mixing heights are in place which leads me to believe that some drier air than what guidance shows will mix down to the surface resulting in humidity values in the mid to upper teens. Current forecast is on the higher end of temperatures and lower end of dew points and still struggling to get widespread humidity values falling below criteria. Per fuel partners fuels remain marginal and given the overall aggressive nature of current forecast and still struggling to get widespread humidity values to criteria let alone three hours will forego a Red Flag Warning. If fuels were fully cured a Red Flag Warning would more than likely be in effect given the wind. Showers ands storms are forecast to develop along a cold front which may support some dry lightning potential but confidence in lighting coverage is a bit lower due to meager amounts of elevated CAPE in place. These storms may also be capable of wind gusts around 65 mph along with the potential for outflows resulting in blowing dust (wall of dust possible but less than 5% chance of occurring.
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.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for KSZ001>003-013>015-027-028. CO...None. NE...Blowing Dust Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for NEZ079>081.
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MESOSCALE... SHORT TERM...Trigg LONG TERM...Trigg AVIATION...Trigg FIRE WEATHER...Trigg
NWS GLD Office Area Forecast Discussion