Gibbon, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS63 KGID 200242
AFDGID
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
942 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...Short Term and Key Messages Update...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Although there remains a SMALL chance that a stronger storm
  could yet develop into our far south-southwestern forecast
  area yet tonight along the nose of a low-level jet (mainly
  Rooks/Osborne County area), odds strongly favor that the vast
  majority of spotty thunderstorm activity overnight will be
  very weak and mainly focused within counties along/east of Hwy
  281.
- Confidence is gradually increasing in potentially widespread
  fog and at least localized dense fog (visibility 1/4 mile or
  less) development Saturday AM, particularly within our
  Nebraska counties along/north of Highway 6.
- Temperatures will be on a warming trend after today with highs
  in the 80s area-wide on Monday then cooling into the 60s and
  70s on Tuesday behind a cold front.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
A brief look back at the earlier severe storm in our southern
CWA, and a look ahead through the rest of the overnight
(including increasing fog potential):
- LOOKING BACK:
Our forecast area (CWA) dealt with a lone-but-intense severe
supercell storm earlier this afternoon-evening, tracking
southeastward along roughly a Republican City-Smith Center KS-
Tipton KS line between 3-6 PM. Despite radar algorithms strongly
suggesting this was a fairly large hail producer, a wealth of
reports/photos revealed that the vast majority of hail along its
path was instead copious amounts of smaller stones (quarter
size and mostly smaller), which combined with near-to-
marginally-severe winds mainly 50-60 MPH to strip leaves off
trees, damage crops, and coat the entire ground white. Once this
storm rapidly weakened and departed our forecast area out of
southern Mitchell County KS, we were spared any additional
severe storms that instead "took off" just to our south-
southwest within central/west central KS.
- LOOKING AHEAD REST OF OVERNIGHT (main concern fog):
- Precip/thunderstorm potential:
While we`ll need to keep a wary eye on our extreme south-
southwest CWA these next several hours (mainly Rooks/Osborne
counties) just in case a rogue stronger (but elevated) storm
happens to develop along the nose of a modest low level jet and
take advantage of a solid 1000-1500 J/kg of elevated CAPE
(instability(, latest HRRR runs are fairly insistent that any
remaining thunderstorm potential within our CWA tonight will be
fairly spotty/weak...and primarily focused within counties
along/south of I-80 and along/east of Hwy 281.
- Increasing fog potential overnight-Sat AM:
Although greater coverage of mid-high clouds should/in theory
make widespread fog development less likely in our southern CWA
(namely KS), at least partial and increasing clearing-with-time
over most of our Nebraska CWA, combined with very light winds
and considerable low-level/boundary layer moisture...will likely
set the stage for potentially widespread fog development (some
dense) especially by around/after 4 AM and lasting through
around 10-11 AM. As is typical, model visibility progs such as
from HRRR are "bouncing around" from run-to-run regarding how
widespread fog/dense fog might be, but enough of a signal exists
that Sat AM fog potential has been "beefed up" in our official
forecast and also Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOGID). Do not yet
have enough confidence to hoist a proactive Dense Fog Advisory
(especially with some uncertainty in cloud cover), but obviously
overnight shift will be monitoring closely for any possible
need for one.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Today and tonight...
An upper trough extends from Canada southward to the central Plains
and Midwest. Upper level lift/shortwaves associated with the upper
trough are moving across portions of Nebraska and Kansas. Showers
and thunderstorms are moving across central Nebraska. This has
resulted in lingering cloud cover and more stability across
locations generally northeast of the Tri-Cities. Mid-level lapse
rates are higher across western portions of the area along with 0 to
6 km bulk wind shear values around 50 knots and modest CAPE. These
conditions have resulted in a marginal threat of severe storms this
afternoon and evening across north central Kansas and portions of
south central Nebraska. Hail up to around the size of quarters and
wind gusts up to around 60 mph are the main threats. Temperatures
today across the area are quite a bit cooler in the north with
values ranging from near 60 around Ord and warmer in the south with
values in the mid to upper 70s in north central Kansas. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the upper 40s to the lower 60s
with a surface high present across northern Nebraska. Patchy fog
will be possible tonight in areas that received rainfall today with
light northerly winds present.
Saturday through Monday night...
The surface high will move south and east on Saturday with high
temperatures across south central and central Nebraska and north
central Kansas mostly in the low to mid 70s. Low temperatures
Saturday night will be in the mid 50s to low 60s. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible (15% to 20% chance) Saturday night as
a shortwave moves over the area. Southerly winds are expected on
Sunday with temperatures warming up into the mid 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures Sunday night will be in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s.
The warming trend will continue into Monday with highs in the upper
70s to mid 80s. Showers and storms may develop (15% to around 20%
chance) across portions of the area Monday afternoon as a shortwave
moves overhead. A cold front will begin to move into the area Monday
night with low temperatures in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Rain and
storm chances Monday night will increase to around 35% to 55%.
Tuesday through Thursday...
An upper low/trough will move southeastward over the area on
Tuesday. Cooler air will be moving into the region with northerly
winds. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. There will be up to a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms
on Tuesday as a result of lift associated with the upper low. Low
temperatures Tuesday night will be in the low 50s to low 60s with
northerly winds. The upper low will pass to the east southeast of
the area on Wednesday with a surface high remaining in place across
south central and central Nebraska and north central Kansas.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be similar to those on Tuesday. Low
temperatures Wednesday night will be in the low to mid 50s with the
surface high in place. Temperatures may warm up a little on Thursday
from the previous day but will remain below 80 degrees.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 723 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence that the first several and last several hours of
the period will feature VFR ceiling/visibility (and that the
vast majority of the period will be rain/thunderstorm-free
except perhaps these first few hours mainly at KEAR). HOWEVER,
confidence is increasing that especially the 09-18Z timeframe
will feature low clouds and/or fog...with LIFR likely and VLIFR
certainly possible. Winds will be minor throughout the period,
with sustained speeds commonly no more than 3-6KT and direction
overall-variable but typically northerly/easterly.
- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation potential:
Starting with precipitation, primarily KEAR appears to have at
least 2 more hours of possible shower/weak thunderstorm
potential within a narrow, west-east oriented band and have
included -SHRA in a TEMPO through 02Z. KGRI could be close to
the northern edge of this activity this evening, but odds favor
it stays at least 5-10 miles south and have omitted from TAFs.
Getting on to the more concerning ceiling/visbility issues for
Saturday AM, have trended 00Z TAFs considerably more pessimistic
than previous. Although some degree of higher-level clouds
could work against fog/low stratus formation somewhat, plentiful
low-level/boundary layer moisture and very light winds appear
increasingly supportive of fog development. While at least light
fog and sub-VFR ceiling could develop a few hours earlier, have
targeted 10-14Z with a TEMPO for the overall-worst conditions
(currently LIFR ceiling/visibility), but at least brief VLIFR in
dense fog cannot be ruled out. While confidence is fairly high
that visibility will improve to VFR by 16Z, an IFR/MVFR ceiling
could easily stick around until approximately 18Z before
lifting to VFR and/or scattering out (with only scattered mid-
high level clouds remaining).
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Schuldt
AVIATION...Pfannkuch

NWS GID Office Area Forecast Discussion