Gibraltar, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

007
FXUS63 KDTX 262236
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
636 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a chance of a few showers this evening mainly north of I-
69, otherwise the region will be dry through the weekend and into
next week.
- Warmer weather persists into early next week with highs breaking
80F at times.
&&
.AVIATION...
Convergence along a cold front extending across the Saginaw Valley
has triggered scattered showers and a broken VFR based cloud field.
The cold front will sink southward toward KFNT tonight while
weakening. Increasing southwest flow toward daybreak will then drive
the remnant frontal boundary northward, placing the terminals in
the warm sector for the day Saturday, resulting in a slight increase
in SSW winds to 8 to 12 knots. Post frontal boundary layer
conditions with added moisture off Saginaw Bay will support high
probabilities for low cloud and fog development (LIFR conditions) at
KMBS overnight.
For DTW/D21 Convection...No convection is expected through the TAF
period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* None.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Sep 26 2025
DISCUSSION...
A rising height field washes over the area today as a longwave ridge
translates across the northern CONUS. Within this increasingly
stable pattern is a weak shortwave percolating along the tail end of
a cold front tracking south across northern Lower MI. Weak diurnal
instability of a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE and convergence along the
front brings the potential for isolated showers north of I-69
through early this evening. The front stalls across this corridor
tonight before lifting back north as a warm front on Saturday.
The loss of instability after sunset will cause any showers to
dissipate, but pooled low-level moisture and the increasing length
of night will bring another opportunity for fog development through
early Saturday morning. Model signal for this is focused near/north
of the stalled front with low confidence on occurrence of any dense
fog at this time. Lows will be on the mild side in the mid 50s.
An amplified trough tracking across Canada quickly flattens the
ridge overhead on Saturday and induces southwest flow ahead of
another cold front taking shape over the Midwest. This bumps temps
up into the lower 80s for a daytime high. Some weak instability will
develop over the state but a mid-level cap and lack of forcing will
preclude a precip mention.
High confidence in dry weather prevailing Sunday and through the
week ahead as an amplified ridge builds in to dominate the Great
Lakes, Midwest, and central Canada. A trough clearly evident in
water vapor imagery over the SE CONUS stalls and becomes a cutoff
low this weekend as a tropical wave merges with it. This sets up a
rex block pattern with 500mb heights building toward 590 dam late
this weekend before settling toward around 586 dam by midweek. This
is about 1 to 1.5 standard deviations above the mean for this time
of year and supports a very stable setup through the week. Temps
hold on the warm side of normal this weekend into the early week,
then flow flips northeast which should bring in cooler, more
seasonable air midweek.
MARINE...
Outside of isolated showers around today over Lake Huron, no weather
of note is expected this weekend into early next week. High pressure
building in from the northern Plains tonight into the weekend leads
to light winds (

NWS dtx Office Area Forecast Discussion