Glens Fork, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

816
FXUS63 KLMK 251043
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
643 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Widespread rainfall ending this morning. Scattered showers
   lingering this afternoon, but overall drying trend.
*  Dense Fog could develop in some locations later tonight.
*  Mostly dry with warming temperatures expected this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
We currently sit under the right entrance region of a healthy 80-90
knot upper level jet, with well defined frontogenesis beneath it
over our area. The end result of this jet structure pattern is
widespread light to moderate rainfall over our NW half of the CWA,
with embedded bands and pockets of heavier rainfall as you would
expected with a deep frontogenetical setup. The low level jet has
responded beneath the good upper divergence aloft to the tune of 20
knots or so, which is adding to the deep moisture transport and PWAT
values ranging between 1.7-2" through the jet core. It is notable
that more convective elements are occurring on the SE edge of the
current precipitation shield, likely due to a bit more instability
present over the unworked south central and SE CWA. Seeing some
pretty good rates out of the showers and storms, and will likely
have to continue with some isolated Flood Advisories where the 1 to
3 hour totals pile up a bit. Still can`t rule out a Flash Flood
Warning or two, but that will depend on some SW to NE training and
likely over an area that has already received sizable totals to this
point in the prolonged event. Outside of that, the 1 to 2" totals
expected for most should be handled fairly well.
The right entrance region of that upper jet is expected to begin
gradually weakening between 6 and 12z this morning, all while it
makes slow progress eastward. This will gradually shift the focus of
the heaviest rainfall axis along the parkways, essentially bisecting
our CWA across the middle from SW to NE. This axis should generally
be from around the Bowling Green region up through Lexington, with
trends weakening and pushing east toward dawn.
After sunrise, we lose the deep moisture transport as the low level
jet core pushes off to the east, however the upper trough axis and
upper level jet stream hangs over our area. The end result will be
lingering isolated to scattered showers, tapering to east of I-65
through the afternoon. Any additional QPF should be pretty light
(.1" to .5"), and mainly just be beneficial to climbing out of our
drought hole a bit. We`ll see weak cool advection behind the cold
front with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s for most. A few
spots in the S/SE CWA may still touch 80.
The upper trough axis then continues to push eastward into tonight,
with any lingering showers in our far east drying up or moving on.
Will say that later tonight (Thursday night) does look like it could
carry the potential of a dense fog set up if we get clearing of
clouds late enough in the day to prevent any real mixing, and then
follow it up with a mostly clear night where radiational cooling can
combine with a bunch of left over moisture from heavy rainfall. This
is a classic dense fog setup if it does indeed work out the way.
We`ll look at nailing down that potential once we get the heavy rain
out of here later this morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Friday - Sunday Night...
The main upper trough axis will be pushing east of our area by
Friday morning, however the southern portion of this trough will
close off into a weak upper low just to our south over the Tennessee
Valley/southern Appalachians. This feature will then wobble there
through the weekend, while weak upper ridging tries to establish
over our area. Overall, should be a mostly dry setup for us, however
models continue to suggest that a few showers may be possible as the
upper low taps into an Atlantic moisture source and sends it back
westward toward our CWA. Will keep pops confined to our SE CWA for
now, and keep them in the isolated range. Overall, look for a mostly
dry weekend with highs trending warmer from the upper 70s on Friday
into the lower 80s by Sunday. Lows will be pleasant and mostly in
the mid to upper 50s each morning. By Sunday, low 60s will be more
common.
Monday - Wednesday...
Confidence lowers a bit for early to mid next week, although the
forecast still looks to be mostly dry and warm. The big question or
factors hurting confidence have to do with what will likely be two
tropical systems approaching the Carolina Coast, and possibly
interacting with the weak closed low that will likely still be
parked over the southern Appalachians. This interaction will drive
how much deep moisture is able to be pushed back west over our area,
and for the moment, it is impossible to know what that will be.
Right now, most of the data supports the upper ridge axis over the
central CONUS mostly winning out over our area, and keeping us dry.
However, some data still has spotty shower coverage far enough west
into our area. Will keep pops silent for now as the drier solution
has the edge in the data fields, but will continue to monitor.
Should be interesting to watch how models handle the tropical
systems and their interactions (Fujiwara could come into play at
some point).
Temperatures should continue to run notably above normal into next
week assuming the drier and less cloud solution verifies. With
values ranging in the lower to mid 80s each day, we`ll be around 5
degrees above normal for this time of year.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 642 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Still have about 6 to 12 hours of deteriorated conditions to get
through, but overall starting to see some light at the end of the
tunnel from this prolonged string of impactful weather. Currently,
widespread showers are ending across the area, however we`ll hang
onto scattered lingering showers through much of the morning into
the afternoon. Ceilings are expected to settle into the MVFR and IFR
range for a period, before improving through the afternoon and back
to VFR for the late afternoon and evening hours. Could see a fog
signal develop for some late tonight, but only included mention for
BWG/LEX/RGA. Surface winds are messy this morning with the frontal
boundary draped across the area, however we`ll eventually see a more
steady NW wind by mid to late morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BJS
LONG TERM...BJS
AVIATION...BJS

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion