Gonzales, California Weather Forecast Discussion

394
FXUS66 KMTR 231038
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
338 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
- Areas of Moderate and Major HeatRisk today.
- Weak offshore flow through Tuesday in the higher terrain.
- Chances rain showers and isolated thunderstorm return late
   tonight and continue through Wednesday.
- Seasonal weather returns late week and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
(Today and tonight)
For those looking for a taste of summer, today is your day as high
temperatures will be about 5 to 15 degrees above normal. What does
that mean in terms of the thermometer? Highs will be in the 90s for
many interior locations, with some sites potentially cracking 100.
For those closer to the coast, highs will range from the 70s to mid
80s. Skies will be mostly sunny throughout the day, but clouds will
start to infiltrate later in the afternoon or evening as low
pressure approaches the region. Unsettled weather should stay at bay
until Wednesday. A few CAMs show showers trying to flirt with our
southern waters or against southern Monterey County.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
(Wednesday through Monday)
The forecast is on track with an upper level low pressure system
slated to move into Central California. Showers are expected to
spread up from the south and creep into the Bay Area. Convective
parameters still look fairly decent across the region, favoring
Monterey and San Benito counties and gradually expanding into the
Bay Area. Thunder and precip chances have been reduced in the North
Bay, but a few stray showers are possible up there. PWATs remain
elevated around 1.0-1.4 meaning thunderstorms should be wet and dry
lightning is a lower risk. Nonetheless, if you`re going to be out
and about tomorrow remember, when thunder roars, go in doors. See a
flash, make a dash. And if you`re driving and encounter a rain
shower, remember roads might be a little slick given we haven`t had
much rain this season.
After Wednesday, more seasonal weather is on tap. The upper low is
expected to sink back into southern CA with a brief bout of upper
level ridging nosing in Friday. This will bring a brief warm up with
more seasonal temperatures on tap for the weekend and into early
next week as the pattern becomes more neutral.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 937 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Currently VFR at all terminals with not a cloud in the sky. There
has been decreasing confidence in LIFR ceilings returning to HAF,
MRY, and SNS tonight due to warmer and drier conditions, lack of
current cloud cover, and a very shallow marine layer - if it does
happen, it will likely be of "sunrise surprise" type i.e. right
around the 12Z timeframe. Winds will be light and likely variable
overnight, generally having an offshore component. High clouds
will lower through the TAF period with rain showers beginning to
approach the Monterey Bay terminals towards the end of the TAF
period.
Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. High confidence
in VFR through the TAF period. Rain showers will approach towards
the end of the 30-hour TAF period.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR and calm at MRY and VFR with
northwesterly flow at SNS. Low to moderate confidence in LIFR
ceilings returning to the terminals tonight.
&&
.MARINE...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 337 AM PDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Light winds continue into the mid week. Isolated rain showers and
thunderstorms arrive to the southern waters late Tuesday and
linger through Wednesday. Thunderstorms will pose the risk of
lightning, as well as locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds.
Winds build in the late week, becoming breezy to gusty. Moderate
seas will prevail through Wednesday, building to become rough to
very rough in the outer waters Thursday into Friday.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ006-508-510-513-515.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Murdock
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NWS MTR Office Area Forecast Discussion