Grassy, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

904
FXUS63 KPAH 071800
AFDPAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
100 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly clear skies with near to slightly below normal
  temperatures are forecast through the first half of the week.
- A week ending warmup will see temperatures return to near
  summer-like levels as the run of dry weather continues.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
As an H8 and surface reflected 2ndary cold front completes
passage, surface high pressure migrates from the Great Lakes
states toward the Upper Ohio River Valley by this time tmrw. The
N-NELY trajectories funnel in this pleasantly cool/dry air
firmly across the entirety of the PAH FA, and as the air mass
modifies eventually with more time, we become neutrally
advective as H8 isotherms start to recover during the Mon-Tue
time frame. This will lead us to another day of 75-80 degree
highs with a good couple nights more with lows in the mid-upper
40s. Sensible weather mentions include the possibility of fog,
but guidance suggests TDD depressions bottoming out in the 3F-9F
range, so that`ll be more miss than hit and probably confined
to prone locales right at and around sunrise. Afternoon
considerations include RH drops to minimums around 30 or into
the 20s percentile, but winds are kept at bay by the
predominance of high pressure.
The upper synoptic height pattern transitions toward an omega
block over the course of the latter half of the week. This
reinvigorates the dominance of high pressure here, with H5
heights tuning upwards toward 590 DM and surface high pressure
centering nearby around 1020 MB. H8 temps climb 5-10F, and
sounding extrapolations suggest a surface reflected increase to
above normal temperatures is in order, with highs reaching
upwards to around 90 degrees, just above climo norms in the mid
80s. Dew points make a coincident jump into and thru the 50s,
but dry wx conditions will nevertheless prevail for the
entirety of the week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025
A high pressure dominated forecast presents moclear sky
conditions this package. Closer examination of time/height cross
sections does indicate condensation pressure deficits fall
to/just below 100 mb from KMVN-KEVV/KOWB, so a FEW high cu
bases cannot be altogether discounted. Similarly, despite dew
point depressions trending 3F+, patchy fog cannot be completed
ruled out overnight/toward daybreak, but its probability is low
and likely confined to prone locales. Winds veer from north to
east with time and while generally light, may contain some
diurnal gusts into the teens kts at times.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&
$$

NWS PAH Office Area Forecast Discussion