Gregory, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

817
FXUS63 KDTX 141345
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
945 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Localized areas of fog upwind of Lake Erie dissipate by noon.
- Much above normal highs with continuing dry weather into next
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Areas of fog have persisted upwind of Lake Erie this morning, still
holding vsbys to a quarter mile or less at obs sites closest to the
shoreline (TTF and ONZ). Satellite trends have shown a substantial
reduction in the fog plume over the last hour or so which should
only continue to erode as solar insolation ramps up. Updated grids
reflect the localized nature of the fog plume, which should be fully
mixed out by noon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 545 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
AVIATION...
Scattered areas of fog have developed overnight with the greatest
coverages and densities focused over the Thumb and Lake Erie
shoreline. Fog near Lake Erie has trended towards a low stratus
instead for DTW/YIP. By the start of the new forecast period, this
fog (or low stratus) should begin to burn off following sunrise
supporting clearer skies by mid morning. Otherwise, region remains
under high pressure again today keeping skies mostly clear with any
diurnal cu limited to FEW/SCT coverage.
For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunder chances for the period.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for cigs aob 200ft at start of new forecast period this
  morning, low by mid-morning.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
DISCUSSION...
A blocked, high amplitude upper level pattern featured over the next
week ensures an extended stretch of benign weather with conditions
marked by well above average warmth. This pattern solidified over
the next 24 hours as a narrow upper ridge squeezes into the upper
midwest and great lakes before closing off. This process occurs as
high pressure anchors to the north, maintaining a light easterly
gradient to finish the weekend period. Moderating thermal profile
within the background of increasing geopotential heights and full
insolation yields roughly 2-3 degrees warming across 850-925 mb
layer relative to recent days. This translates into highs mainly in
the lower 80s, but with the onshore flow contributing to slightly
cooler readings for locales within immediate proximity to lake
influence. Potential for conditions to again be conducive for some
areas of fog development late tonight, particularly across the thumb
as light east/northeast flow draws moisture off lake Huron.
Upper level high pressure system peaking around 593 dm will remain
fixated over the region through the middle of next week. Neutral
thermal advection overall with low level flow generally lacking a
southerly component lends to gradual moderation of the resident
above average thermal profile given the high magnitude height field.
Highs inching upward into the middle to possibly upper 80s by
Wed/Thu - or just shy of records levels. Dry conditions persist
given the stability, with generally manageable humidity held in
check as adequate diurnal mixing maintains a dewpoint near or below
60 degrees. Some indication within extended model output for this
pattern to gradually break down next weekend, offering the next
opportunity for meaningful rainfall should greater forcing
materialize as heights fall.
MARINE...
A ridge of high pressure will build through the day today and will
hold through the the middle of the week, bringing an extended period
of dry weather along with light winds. Winds direction does turn
more uniform this afternoon from the northeast, which will bring
some localized gust potential towards 20 knots into the Saginaw Bay
given the favorable fetch. These localized higher winds will subside
into tomorrow morning.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE.......MV
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MR
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion