Grimesland, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

463
FXUS62 KMHX 102352
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
752 PM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure continues to pull away to the northeast tonight as
a stalled front drifts farther offshore. High pressure builds in
stronger tomorrow and into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
Once again this evening, radar is showing areas of light
returns progressing south through ENC. Based on observations
here at NWS Morehead City, and scattered mPING reports, it
appears most of this is falling as very light rain or drizzle.
For the remainder of the night, I increased the chance of rain
and drizzle for most of the area as it appears that conditions
will remain supportive for periods of light precipitation.
Additionally, weak CAA appears to be overperforming some, and
temperatures are cooler than initially anticipated. In light of
this, I also lowered temps for the rest of the night as weak CAA
is expected to continue.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A stubborn weather pattern will persist
tonight with a stalled front and area of low pressure off the NC
coast, and high pressure building down the lee of the
Appalachians. Widespread low level clouds continue over ENC,
which has kept temps down in the low to mid 70s so far this
afternoon. There is potential for some brief breaks of sun the
rest of the afternoon, which would allow temps to rise into the
upper 70s if it materializes. Isolated to scattered areas of
light rain and drizzle also continue across ENC, and with little
changing tonight, this scattered activity is expected to linger
overnight, especially along the coast. Low temps will again
range from the low 60s across the coastal plain to the low 70s
along the Outer Banks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wed...Slowly improving conditions are expected
tomorrow as the front offshore drifts farther away from the
coast, and high pressure builds in from the northwest. Still,
widespread clouds will linger through the morning hours, but
some partial afternoon clearing is likely which should allow
temps to warm into the upper 70s to around 80. Isolated to
scattered showers may develop in the afternoon as low level
lapse rates increase, but not expecting any heavy downpours or
thunder.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Coastal trough lingers with much of the rainfall remaining
   offshore
- High pressure leads to drier conditions inland
A second high builds in from the Great Lakes region for Thursday.
There are some indications of a weak low forming along the
stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast this coming
weekend into early next week as a deep positively tilted trough
moves through. It is too soon to tell what impacts, if any, are
expected with very low confidence on the timing, track, and
intensity of the low should it form. At the minimum, winds
should pick up a notch thanks to the tightened pressure
gradient. This results in a higher degree of uncertainty for
the forecast this weekend onwards.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 00z Friday/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages
- Widespread IFR/MVFR conditions to continue through at least
   Thursday morning
Moist, cyclonic flow around departing low pressure will
continue to support widespread low CIGs through the night and
likely into early Thursday afternoon. Through the evening and
into tonight, MVFR CIGs are expected to gradually fall to IFR
(similar to last night). Guidance appears to be coming in a bit
later with the onset of IFR, and the TAFs have been adjusted to
reflect this trend. With the low CIGs, areas of -DZ are
expected, with occasional reductions in VIS to 2-5SM possible.
Most guidance suggests drier air will begin to filter into the
area from the north Thursday afternoon, and the TAFs will show a
gradual return to VFR CIGs in light of this. It should be
noted, though, that some of the more pessimistic guidance holds
onto MVFR CIGs longer. Confidence in VFR conditions returning is
moderate. The risk of -DZ should begin to decrease through the
day Thursday as CIGs rise and as drier air begins to move in.
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...Generally VFR flight conditions expected
through the long term, with gusty N/NE winds along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Thursday/...
As of 3 PM Wed...
Key Messages...
- Small Craft conditions continue north of Ocracoke Inlet into
  tomorrow for elevated seas.
As low pressure develops off the NC coast, northerly winds have
increased to 15-20 kts with gusts in the low 20s across the
marine areas. Expect winds to remain nearly steady through
tomorrow with winds veering slightly to the NNE tomorrow. Seas
are currently 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke, and 3-5 ft to the south.
Expect seas to remain nearly steady into tomorrow afternoon,
before all waters become 3-5 ft.
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Monday/...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...
Key Messages:
-Gusty northerly winds continue through the long term
-Small Craft Advisory conditions return for the weekend
-High uncertainty in the marine forecast this weekend onwards
Trough strengthens offshore, maybe resulting in a weak low, as
we approach the weekend. This may result in gusty
north/northeasterly winds 25-30kt late Friday into the weekend.
However, winds and waves are highly dependent on strength,
location, and track of low, should it even develop. As a result,
higher than normal level of uncertainty with the magnitude of
the winds at the end of the long term period.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Wednesday...
Higher than normal astronomical tides will continue to produce
elevated waters levels through most of the work week along the
coast and tidal waterways from Ocracoke Inlet to Surf City.
Depending on tide fluctuations, water levels will likely be 1 to
2 feet above ground level during periods of high tide. A coastal
flood advisory remains in effect for portions of the Eastern
North Carolina coastline for the higher tides.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ195-196-
     199.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ152-154.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...RM/SGK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...SGK/RJ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion