Groom, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

066
FXUS64 KAMA 021857
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
157 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
- Warm and dry conditions are favored to continue across the
Panhandles through at least this weekend with highs in the 80s   to
lower 90s.
- Uptick in moisture early to mid next week with a medium chance (30-
60%) of Wednesday high temperatures below 70 degrees across all the
Panhandles.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
Upper level trough currently approaching the Pacific Northwest may
bring impacts to the Panhandles mid to late next week.  But for now
that will continue to amplify the high pressure over the central
CONUS.  This will continue our very warm early October temperatures
that will continue to be in the mid 80s to lower 90s through at
least Saturday.  Winds will generally be out of the south to
southwest today in the 5-10 mph range, with maybe some gusts to 15,
but tomorrow afternoon we will have a lee surface low develop
tomorrow afternoon in the SE Colorado area, and that will tighten up
those pressure gradients, allowing for stronger southwest winds in
the 15 to 25 mph range gusting around 30 mph Friday afternoon.
Weber
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
As we await the upper trough that`s progged to be over the Salt Lake
City area Saturday morning, the cross barrier flow over the Rockies
will continue, and south to southwest breezy winds around 15 to 25
mph look to continue to occur, but will now expand over much of the
Panhandles.   Strongest winds look to be in the northwest, and may
even manage to get sustained 25 to 30 in the far northwest corner.
As we move into Sunday the system is progged to eject to the
northwest as a more open wave.  And there`s a small chance (10-20%)
that showers and storms may clip the northwest Panhandles.
Monday through Wednesday will be where we start to transition to
cooler temperatures and higher moisture content.  As that previous
upper trough ejects to the central Plains a secondary low from
Canada is expected to push back down south toward the Four Corners,
which will continue to hold that trough axis over that area.  This
will continue to keep that south to southwest flow over the
Panhandles.  There`s a decent pocket of cooler Canadian air that
continue to battle the warmer air to the south and models continue
to go back and forth on timing of the next decent cold front, as
well as how cool, and how long the cold front will last.  Given how
much the deterministic models continue to flip flop on both the
cooler temperatures, and just how far south the moisture will make
it next week, we still have several ensemble model members that
support a good push of cooler below normal temperatures (30-60%
chance of highs below 70 on Wednesday), and some of those same
members are favoring more than an inch of precipitation with the
multiple rounds of showers and storms.
Weber
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours. Winds will be in the 5-15kt range out of the south to
southwest. LLWS from 7-13z at KGUY and KAMA about 40-45kts. No
vis/cig restrictions expected.
Weber
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion