Guerra, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

557
FXUS64 KBRO 020330
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1030 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
- Rain chances return this weekend into next week along the coast
   and typical sea breeze locations.
- A moderate risk of rip currents is expected this weekend into
   early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
High pressure gradually gives way to low pressure from the Gulf
working westward into Texas into late next week. As moisture
increases off the Gulf, expect diurnal rain chances to increase
this weekend, working inland with the sea breeze each afternoon.
Generally a medium (40 to 60) percent chance of rain is expected
through the period, with the lowest POPs on Sunday and Monday.
ECMWF and NAM PWATs surge above normal by this weekend, with GFS
PWATs closer to normal for early October. Either way, with little
wind or flow, expect any showers or thunderstorms that develop to
be slow-moving and capable of producing locally heavy rainfall,
especially along and east of US 77 this weekend and along and east
of US 281 by mid week.
Seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected
through Wednesday with rainfall or cloud cover stifling highs at
any locations where activity persists during prime daytime heating
hours. Patchy fog may develop across the ranchlands each night.
A moderate risk of rip currents along the lower Texas coast
likely returns by this weekend, with an increasing swell and
period along the western Gulf due to persistent easterly flow.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period with
a ENE breeze during the afternoon hours Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Generally favorable winds and seas lead into the start of the
weekend, with an increasing easterly swell by the end of the
weekend bringing a chop to coastal and offshore waters. Brief SCEC
conditions are possible beyond 20 nm late Saturday into Sunday.
The chance of showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday night and
persists through the forecast period, especially offshore, as low
pressure slowly works westward across the Gulf. Waterspouts may
develop near any showers or thunderstorms this weekend and next
week, especially offshore.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             73  92  74  91 /   0  10  10  50
HARLINGEN               69  93  69  92 /   0  10   0  40
MCALLEN                 73  98  72  96 /   0  10   0  20
RIO GRANDE CITY         68  97  69  96 /   0   0   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      80  87  80  86 /   0  10  10  50
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     73  89  74  88 /   0  10  10  50
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...56-Hallman
LONG TERM....56-Hallman
AVIATION...56-Hallman

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion