Happy, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

968
FXUS64 KLUB 251102
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
602 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 538 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
- Cooler temperatures persist this afternoon with warmer but around
   seasonal normal highs expected Friday.
- Highs back above seasonal normals through the weekend.
- Dry, apart from slight chances for showers and thunderstorms
   near the New Mexico state line Saturday through Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Quiet but cooler conditions are expected through the short term
period. The upper level shortwave thought brought the cooler air and
precipitation to parts of the FA will continue to depart to the east
as an upper level ridge begins to amplify over the Desert Southwest.
We will begin to see this ridge shift east in response to an upper
level shortwave trough and associated closed low moving onshore the
southern California coastline. In addition, the surface high will
also begin to advance east which will shift northerly winds
throughout the day out of the east-southeast by the late afternoon.
Despite the rising heights and thickness values, the upslope
component to the wind should help keep the cooler air mass in place
this afternoon. Expect daytime highs to be a few degrees warmer but
still cooler compared to what we saw earlier this week and near
seasonal normals in the 80s area-wide. Tonight, not much of a change
to report with light wind speeds and clear skies allowing for max
radiational cooler and lows in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
By the start of the extended period not much of a change to the
upper level pattern is expected from the short term. The FA will
remain under the influence of the upper level ridge as the upper
level trough and associated closed low scoots through portions of
SOCAL and AZ through Saturday, before ejecting northeastward towards
the Rockies on Sunday. As the shortwave track northeastward we
expect to see this feature weaken as a strong shortwave moves into
the PacNW region. In response, we should see zonal flow aloft become
more southwesterly by Saturday morning which should allow for some
subtropical moisture to transport into the region through the
weekend. Compared to previous model runs, there looks to be better
agreement in regards to the evolution of the trough but still not
enough agreement for anything to be certain. Ensembles are still
hinting that this closed low could bring precipitation to at least
our most western column of counties this weekend as the system
approaches the region from the west. However, most of the lift and
beneficial moisture looks to remain off to our west across portions
of AZ/NM. As for temperatures, west to southwest flow will become
prominent from the surface to mid-levels by Friday. Combined with
subsidence aloft we can expect temperatures to quickly warm back
above seasonal normals in the upper 80s to mid 90s through the
weekend. We could see slight relief Sunday into Monday as surface
winds back out of the southeast in response to the shifting surface
high pressure and potential for lingering clouds through the
afternoon. Due to the vast amount of uncertainty regarding the
extended, will go ahead and maintain NBM PoPs and temperatures,
depicting chances for rain across our western zones beginning
Saturday through Monday and slightly cooler temperatures come
Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 538 AM CDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions will prevail.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...51

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion