Hardin, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

704
FXUS65 KBYZ 112049
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
249 PM MDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few thunderstorms could become strong to severe late today
  into the evening. Threats include strong winds and hail up to 1
  inch.
- Good chance for precipitation (30-60% chance >0.5 inches east
  of Billings) Friday through Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures with widespread low 70 degree highs by
  Saturday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Through Saturday night...
Convection is expected to lift to the northwest throughout the
evening. Severe storms will remain possible this evening with a
few showers staying through the overnight. Tomorrow will have a
similar setup to today with strong capping during the morning
hours. Convection getting off the ground will rely on strong low
level lapse rates and terrain leading to scattered convection. If
convection gets off the ground it will have 500-1500 J/kg of CAPE
from east to west and 30-40 kts of shear. Straight line
hodographs could lead to splitting storms. The Storm Prediction
Center (CPC) has issued a risk level 1 of 5 tomorrow with the main
threats being winds gusting up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch.
Anomalously high PWAT values 125-150% of normal will bring the
potential for heavy rain from these thunderstorms with the Weather
Prediction Center (WPC) issuing a level 1 of 4 risk for excessive
rainfall tomorrow.
Saturday will see elongated upper level troughing continue to
slowly move to the east. Low pressure over the Dakotas will wrap
moisture into Montana bringing continued chances (50-70%) for
showers and thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.
Precipitation is expected to lift north and east throughout this
period. This precipitation will occur in a different environment
with soundings indicating deep moisture and limited instability.
Most areas can expect general thunderstorms Friday night through
Saturday. PWAT values 150-200% of normal will lead to a heavy
rain threat with WPC issuing a risk level 1 of 4 for locations
east of Rosebud County for Saturday.
Temperatures will be cooler tomorrow with high 70s F to mid 80s F
from west to east. Saturday will see temperatures cool further
with low 70s F across the region. Torgerson
Sunday through Thursday...
Ensembles prog shortwave ridging to build over the area Sunday
into Monday, as a low shifts off to the east, and another
approaching low causes flow to become amplified. The building
heights will cause temperatures to warm above normal for most
locations. High temperatures are forecast to warm into the 70s
and 80s.
By Monday night/Tuesday, the next upper low is forecast to
move into the region, bringing unsettled conditions through mid-
week. Moderate precipitation chances (30-60%) most days and
cooler conditions look to prevail. The chance for
exceeding 0.25 inches of rainfall Tuesday through Thursday is
roughly 30-60%. Highs are currently forecast in
the 60s to lower 70s Tuesday through Thursday, near to slightly
below normal for the time of year. STP
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening before dying
down overnight. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return
Friday afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds as high as 50 kts can be
expected near thunderstorms. MVFR or lower conditions are possible
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NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion