Hartley, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

401
FXUS64 KAMA 280430
AFDAMA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1130 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
- Benign and warmer than normal weather is expected through much
  of this coming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
An upper-level trough remains in place over the Southwestern US with
scattered showers and thunderstorms ongoing across that region.
Sunday will likely be a dry day given the lack of forcing and
negative 700mb theta-e advection throughout the day. Mid- to high-
based clouds are expected to move into the western Panhandles which
will help keep temperatures slightly cooler than they were on
Saturday.
The trough is expected to approach the proverbial doorstep of the
Panhandles on Monday with widespread cloud cover anticipated. Some
weak forcing could be present in the afternoon alongside neutral to
slightly positive 700mb theta-e advection, suggesting isolated
showers cannot be ruled out in the western Panhandles. NBM has been
very slowly increasing PoPs over the last several runs, but remains
limited to 5-14%. If showers do occur, rainfall totals should remain
less than 0.10".
Vanden Bosch
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
Benign weather is expected in this long-term period. An upper-level
ridge stretching from the Eastern Pacific up into the Midwest is
likely to develop through the weak as weak troughing is favored over
the Southeastern US. As a result, temperatures will remain in the
80s throughout this forecast period with localized 90s not out of
the realm of possibilities. Chances for precipitation from Tuesday
through Friday is nearly zero. As the weekend approaches, so does an
upper-level trough that could begin to make its presence known by
Saturday... most likely in the form of strengthening surface winds.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions are anticipated through at least the next 24 hours.
Winds will become southwesterly during the day and strengthen to
10-15 kts before weakening to 10 kts or less this evening.
Vanden Bosch
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52

NWS AMA Office Area Forecast Discussion