Hebron Cemetery, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

717
FXUS63 KICT 221058
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
558 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Severe storms will be possible late tonight into the morning hours
  on Tuesday.
- Precipitation ending from west to east late Wednesday.
- Seasonably mild with dry conditions Thursday through Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Areas of fog were already developing in southeast Kansas shortly
after midnight. Fog is expected to expand across all of southeast
Kansas and much of south central Kansas before mixing out during the
early to mid-morning hours.
Shortwave ridging is progged to translate eastward over the Central
Plains today ahead of a robust mid/upper trough digging into the
Rockies. We expect much if not all of the area to remain capped to
deep moist convection during the day today. As we move into the
evening and overnight hours, low pressure at the sfc is progged to
move eastward across northern OK with low level mass convergence
allowing dewpoints to pool across southern KS. Showers and storms
developing over the Central High Plains will propagate into our
forecast area as trough emerges from the Rockies toward Tuesday
morning. We continue to see steep mid-lvl lapse rates/sufficient
elevated cape and deep layer shear to support some storm
organization with a damaging wind and large hail threat after 07-08Z
possibly lingering into the morning hours on Tuesday. Anomalous
moisture is progged to linger over the area with PWATs progged in
the 150-175 percent of normal range late tonight into Tue morning
leading to efficient rainfall once again. With multiple rounds of
storms and some clustering of storms, locally heavy rain could lead
to some flooding or flash flooding. HREF neighborhood probabilities
for exceeding 1 inch are high (~70%) with some 30% probabilities for
exceeding 2 inches in parts of south central Kansas.
Another round of showers and storms are expected as the mid/upper
trough moves across the area Tue night into early Wed before
precipitation ends from west to east late Wed as the system exits
into the Middle Mississippi Valley area.
Thu-Sun...A mid/upper ridge is progged to gradually build eastward
into the central CONUS through the period. This will bring mild and
dry conditions to the region from late in the week through the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 554 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Widespread dense fog was impacting parts of south central and
much of southeast Kansas this morning. Visibility is being
reduced to 1/4 mile or less at times. Conditions are expected to improve
around 9 am or shortly thereafter with VFR prevailing this
afternoon. An approaching storm system will bring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms to the area after
midnight. Storm activity may not impact KCNU until the end of
the TAF period while our central KS TAF sites will be impacted
around or shortly after midnight. Some of the storms late
tonight and early on Tuesday could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053-
068>072-083-092>096-098>100.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MWM
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion