Hermleigh, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

618
FXUS64 KMAF 100510
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1210 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- There is a low chance (10-20%) of showers and thunderstorms
  this afternoon and early evening, mainly across Southeast New
  Mexico and the northwest Permian Basin.
- Unseasonably warm and mainly dry conditions persist into next
  week. Low (10-30%) rain chances this weekend and early next
  week, mainly for Southeast New Mexico and the higher terrain.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Current satellite imagery and latest RAP analysis shows upper-level
ridging building in from the Desert Southwest. Being still on the
eastern periphery of this feature, this will shift much of the
region to northwesterly flow aloft. Disturbances within the flow
aloft is going to aid in ascent and mid to upper-level moisture
especially for areas across southeast New Mexico this afternoon.
Guidance also has surface troughing settling over southern New
Mexico today providing another source of ascent. CAMs are coming to
more of an agreement with storms developing across southeast New
Mexico during the afternoon before spreading into the northwestern
Permian Basin early this evening. Forecast soundings show "inverted-
V" profiles and high DCAPE values signaling a microburst potential
with the strongest storm. Low shear will inhibit storms to sustain
themselves, thus, these storms are expected to remain below severe
limits. The primary concerns associated with these storms will be
frequent lightning and brief gusty winds. Most locations look to
remain dry with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to mid 90s
regionwide.
Wednesday, the upper-level ridge of high pressure parks over the
region. As a result, warmer temperatures and near-zero PoPs are in
store areawide, thanks to increasing thicknesses and subsidence.
High temperatures are expected to span in the lower to upper 90s,
besides a few locations in the higher terrain being in the mid to
upper 80s tomorrow afternoon. Warmer than normal temperatures and
dry conditions are anticipated heading into the long-term period.
Lamberson
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Troughing over the northwestern CONUS begins to push the ridge
farther east by the end of the week and beginning of the weekend.
Despite the gradual displacement of the ridge, temperatures Thursday
onwards remain unseasonably warm across West Texas and Southeast New
Mexico, with no appreciable weather systems or fronts in sight.
Though highs and lows will gradually decline through the forecast
period, they still remain about 3-6 degrees above normal (highs at
MAF are typically around 88-86 this time of year, and lows average
near 66-64). Rain chances also remain low given drier conditions and
lack of appreciable forcing (troughing tends to remain too far
north/northwest through the period to have much an impact on our
area). Nevertheless, weak pulses in the southwesterly/quasi-zonal
flow aloft could allow for some showers and thunderstorms this
weekend and into early next week, mainly in Southeast New Mexico and
the higher terrain of West Texas (10-30%). In any case, the Long
Term period looks to unseasonably warm and dry overall.
Sprang
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1209 AM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR continues for the period. Gusts decrease tonight and return
during the day today(Tuesday). Otherwise, southeasterly flow
around 10-15kts prevails.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               94  65  94  66 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 95  63  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   92  67  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            94  66  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           87  63  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    92  61  90  62 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    87  55  86  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     93  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   92  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     94  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...93

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion