Hobucken, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

453
FXUS62 KMHX 080622
AFDMHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
222 AM EDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the north with a front stalled
offshore early this week. A shortwave moves across the area
with a surface low lifting along a stalled front offshore mid-
week bringing heavy rain chances along the coast. High pressure
builds in again for the end of the work week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 2 AM Monday...The frontal boundary remains stalled
offshore near the Gulf Stream with high pressure building in
from the north. Heavier precip has shifted offshore but weak
isentropic lift is bringing additional light showers across the
area, mainly across the NW third of the FA. The only model
picking up on this is the HRRR and have followed it to capture
the inland precip through the pre-dawn hours, which has the
inland precip waning between 10-12z with weak isentropic down
glide developing around that time.
Through the remainder of the day, expect mainly cloudy skies
with the precip primarily remaining offshore near the stalled
front but cannot rule out a few light showers skirting the coast
at time. Locations west of highway 17 could see breaks of sun
late this morning and afternoon. NE winds will gust to around
20 mph inland and 30 mph along the OBX. Temps will be around
5-8 degrees below normal with highs around 75-80 degrees.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Little change in the pattern tonight with
high pressure continuing to build in from the north and the
front remaining stalled offshore near the Gulf Stream. Mostly
cloudy skies persist along the coast with scattered clouds west
of highway 17. Light to moderate NE winds persist across the
area with gusts around 25-30 mph persisting along the coast.
Lows expected around 60 well inland, low to mid 60s inland from
the coast and upper 60s along the immediate coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1 AM Monday...
Key Messages
- Cooler, drier conditions this week
- Coastal trough lingers, best chances of rain Tue and Wed
   along OBX
- Dry end to the week as high pressure builds again
Front remains stalled along the Gulf Stream through the long
term. NE flow behind the front as high pressure over the NE
builds into the region, bringing a stretch of drier, and cooler
conditions inland. A slightly stronger shortwave looks to move
through along the coastal trough Tuesday into Wednesday. This
will bring the best chances of showers reaching the coast,
especially OBX where PoPs are highest. After the shortwave moves
through, original high pressure over the NE gets pushed towards
the Canadian Maritimes, and a second high builds in from the
Great Lakes region. some indications of a weak low forming
along the stalled front/coastal trough off the FL/GA/SC coast
this coming weekend into early next week as a deep positively
tilted trough moves through. It is too soon to tell what
impacts, if any, are expected with very low confidence on the
timing, track, and intensity of the low should it form.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 2 AM Monday...Widespread stcu will persist across rtes
through the short term as a strong low level inversion has
developed behind a cold front that has stalled offshore and high
pressure building in from the north. Cigs have lifted to VFR
well inland, including ISO and PGV and expect VFR conditions to
persist here through tonight. MVFR cigs persists at coastal TAF
sites and guidance is indicating cigs will lift to VFR here
around mid morning with VFR prevailing through tonight. Along
the coast, east of the TAF sites, MVFR cigs expected to persist
through much of the period. NE winds will gust to around 20 kt
inland and 30 kt along the coast today.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 130 AM Monday...Low stratus possible as northerly flow
may result in a cold air damming regime along the coastal plain
this coming week. Tuesday into Wednesday rain chances with drops
in cig and vis pick up along the coast.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 215 AM Monday...Gusty NE winds will continue through the
short term as gradients remain tight between a stalled front
near the Gulf Stream and high pressure building in from the
north. NE winds will increase to around 20-25 kt with gusts
around 30 kt by daybreak today and persist through the short
term period. Seas will build to 5-8 ft by late today and
tonight.
LONG TERM /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 130 AM Monday...
Key Messages:
- Prolonged period of SCA conditions likely to continue Tuesday
  into Tuesday night
- Winds fall below 25kts Wednesday, but near Small Craft
  Advisory conditions continue through the remainder of the work
  week
- Best chance for next round of SCA conditions late this week
Moderate NNE flow post frontal flow continues at 20-25 kt
(gusting to at or above 30 kts) Tue. Seas will remain at 4-8 ft Tuesday.
Seas abate as winds ease late Tuesday into Wednesday, with
southern waters (Onslow Bay) first to see sub 6ft seas as early
as Tuesday night. Northern waters (off of NOBX) may not see
sub-6ft seas until mid to late day Wednesday. Even as these
winds lessen, they will be 15-25kt out of the NE through the
workweek. Tuesday into Wednesday shortwave moves through along a
lingering coastal trough, increasing precip chances for areas
along the coast and coastal waters.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ196-203>205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ131-135-
     137-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...SK/RJ
MARINE...SK/RJ

NWS MHX Office Area Forecast Discussion