Hogestown, Pennsylvania Weather Forecast Discussion

127
FXUS61 KCTP 111109
AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
709 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
* A predominantly rain-free stretch of seasonable weather
  continues across central Pennsylvania with pleasantly warm
  days and comfortably cool nights into the middle of next week
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A stark contrast of airmasses over CPA early this morning with a
20-25 degree T/Td gradient from NW->SE (44/43F@BFD)(68/62F@MDT).
Lower clouds have been persistent across the mid and lower
Susquehanna Valley with mainly clear skies observed elsewhere
via latest IR satellite. The remote sensing data also shows
radiational fog in the river and stream valleys across the
western and central Alleghenies. Fog may become locally dense
in spots around daybreak, but should then quickly fade by mid
morning as BL heating quickly erases the nocturnal inversion.
Despite the passage of a mid/upper level trough through tonight,
a mean northerly low level flow of relatively dry air and large
scale subsidence/sinking motion associated with 1020+mb high
pressure migrating southeastward from James Bay will promote
another very pleasant and rain-free day across central PA.
Expect gradual clearing across the southeast by midday with
plenty of sun for the afternoon. Max temps rebound a few to
several degrees above daily climo in most locations with dry
air mixing helping to boost highs into the mid 70s to low 80s.
Mainly clear and seasonably cool conditions again tonight with
patchy fog and min temps in the low 40s to mid 50s range.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
More comfortable/low humidity weather on tap into the weekend
with highs trending a bit warmer on the margin. Repeat pattern
of pleasantly warm/mostly sunny days and comfortably cool/clear
nights continues along with patchy predawn to post-sunrise fog.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A northern stream front will push in from the Upper Great Lakes
for the second half of the weekend. The system is starved of
moisture and will only get drier as it hits PA and our parched
ground. Expect only sct SHRA from Sat night into late Sunday or
Sunday night. QPF is just about as low as you would think in
this pattern. Very few pixels of >0.10" to be seen on any models
or ensemble mean solutions. The front slows as it gets just to
the coast and a low pressure center may hang out near NJ. That
might try to throw a shower back into ern PA, but that is not
worth a 15 PoP for Monday. Dry thereafter as another sprawling
high pressure area slides in from the N/W.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fairly widespread valley fog has developed this morning over
Central PA and is resulting in visibility at or below 1/4SM at
AOO and UNV. Fog will gradually dissipate this morning and will
give way to VFR conditions under mainly clear skies with light
north-northeasterly winds. Fog formation is likely again
tonight, but confidence on impacts at airfields is low.
Outlook...
Fri-Sat...VFR except for AM valley fog.
Sat PM-Sun PM...Mainly VFR. Sct SHRAs N.
Mon...VFR except for AM valley fog.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Astronomical fall officially begins with the autumnal equinox
on Monday, September 22, 2025 @ 2:19 p.m. EDT. The Autumn 2025
season will last 89 days, 20 hours, and 43 minutes. Daylight
saving time will end just after Halloween with clocks falling
back at 2 a.m. Sunday, November 2, 2025.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

NWS CTP Office Area Forecast Discussion