Holman, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

149
FXUS63 KDLH 210651
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
151 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of scattered showers with an isolated thunderstorm continue
today. There is a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
Monday.
- Repeated rounds of overnight fog are possible this morning into
early week. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed.
- Largely dry with slightly above normal temperatures Tuesday
  and beyond.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Our ever present upper level troughing continues to slowly peter its
way along today, bringing yet another chance for scattered showers
and an isolated thunderstorm or two. A secondary upper level low is
expected to spin through today, bringing a little extra boost of
synoptic lift this afternoon and evening, which, along with a
blossoming of daytime instability, could help to make for more
widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening. That activity should wane overnight. As the upper level low
departs the are tomorrow, some lingering moisture and instability
could bring light scattered showers to the MN Arrowhead and portions
of north-central WI in the afternoon and early evening.
The ongoing showers and moisture should continue to lead to grey,
damp, and somewhat lugubrious conditions today, which will be
especially true for areas along Lake Superior as a light northeast
wind keeps low clouds and fog rolling in. This morning`s fog has led
to an expansion of Dense Fog Advisories. Generally visibility should
improve through this morning and into mid-day, though some dense fog
could linger in the higher terrain of the North Shore through the
day and in pockets around Lake Superior. With light winds but
persistent moisture and weak northeast flow off Lake Superior,
models are pretty insistent in bringing fog back across the
Northland tomorrow night into Monday morning, and then possibly
again Tuesday morning. As high pressure moves in, we may fall back
into last week`s pattern of repeated rounds of overnight into mid
morning Dense Fog Advisories.
Beyond Monday, the forecast has really trended towards a mostly dry
solution through the work week and possibly into next weekend as our
dominant synoptic feature becomes an elongated zonal ridge extending
from the West Coast to Ontario, putting the Northland under high
pressure and pushing rain chances off to our south. There are a
handful of solutions that bring some sprinkles to the MN Arrowhead
Tuesday afternoon. Global models are in agreement that our synoptic
pattern should morph into more of an omega block pattern into the
weekend but then agreement starts to break down beyond the 7 day
period. Depending on the strength and placement of those synoptic
features a weak shortwave could bring a quick shot of precipitation
somewhere, but for now chances of rain are 10% or less from Tuesday
through Sunday. Temperatures through the 7 day period are expected
to around to slightly above normal with lows in the 50s and highs in
the 60s and 70s.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Areas of fog are expected to become more widespread overnight with
LIFR ceilings and visibilities possible for DLH, INL, and HIB, which
may continue into midday Sunday. MVFR to IFR conditions are possible
for BRD and HYR, but should improve after sunrise. We should see a
return to VFR conditions through the afternoon and into the evening
at all sites. Areas of rain showers are expected on and off through
tomorrow. An isolated thunderstorm possible in the afternoon, but
confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs at this point.
Another round is possible beginning late Sunday evening.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 150 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025
Fairly benign marine conditions are expected through not only the
next 48 hours but most of the 7 day forecast. Some passing rain
showers are expected today, with an isolated thunderstorm possible
in the afternoon. There may be some scattered showers on Monday
afternoon as well. Light northeast winds persist today with waves
continuing to come down. Light northeast winds less than 10 knots
continue into Monday, with a land/lake breeze pattern starting to
set up for mid week week. No strong winds over 10 knots are
currently expected and waves should largely remain at a foot or less
once they come down through today. Round of dense fog are likely
into early week and marine dense fog advisories may be needed.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for MNZ020-021-
     037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Levens
MARINE...Levens

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion