Holmes Iowa Weather Forecast Discussion

255
FXUS63 KDMX 062355
AFDDMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
655 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Shower will persist into the evening and gradually end from
  northwest to southeast. Isolated non-severe storms possible
  south.
- Dry with seasonal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
A cold front has been very slow to move across the state the past 24
hrs as the boundary has become nearly parallel to upper
west/southwest flow. The surface boundary has no reached far
southeast Iowa. The boundary at 850 mb though is lagging and remains
on the northwest half of Iowa side to begin the afternoon. Numerous
waves of theta-e advection continue to lift in vicinity of that
boundary. As a result, periodic showers along with some isolated
thunderstorms have been moving across a large portion of central
Iowa. All of these features will begin to accelerate to the
southeast later today and tonight as a 500 mb short wave trough
approaches from the west/northwest and moves through overnight.
High pressure will arrive on Tuesday and bring clearing skies along
with warmer than today temperatures, but still near to slightly
below normal temperatures with high temperatures generally in the
60s. The high pressure ridge will move slowly east the next several
days with return flow arriving on the backside of the system,
especially towards the end of the week. Expect high temperatures to
be similar with highs in the 60s and low 70s through Thursday.
Overnight lows may dip into the upper 30s Tuesday through Thursday
mornings over parts of northern Iowa where better radiational
conditions develop. A short wave moves through Thursday night and
could bring a few showers or isolated thunderstorms. Another high
pressure system follows this system with even stronger warm
advection for next weekend and perhaps a few areas with have highs
in the 80s once again.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 655 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
The band of showers has settled south of a ALO to DNS line early
this evening and will continue to sink southward overnight.
Until then, there will be MVFR to at times IFR conditions at
DSM and more so OTM. Lightning has been limited so have focused
a PROB30 group at OTM when probability is nearing 50% late this
evening and overnight. Around or shortly after daybreak
Tuesday, conditions will be VFR at all sites with winds from a
northerly direction under 12 knots prevailing through the
period. There could be a few fair weather cumulus clouds over
northern Iowa in the afternoon.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Donavon
AVIATION...Ansorge

NWS DMX Office Area Forecast Discussion