Howe, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

391
FXUS64 KTSA 111715
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
- Dry weather with above normal temperatures into early next
   week. Portions of the area could see an isolated shower or
   thunderstorm Monday and again next Thursday.
- Heat index values of mid 90s to near 100 degrees Friday into
   the weekend, which could increase heat stress potential for
   those with outdoor plans.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Strong ridging will remain centered overhead for the short term.
Temperatures will warm several degrees over yesterday, with highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s. Skies look to remain mostly clear for the
remainder of the day with essentially no chance of rain. Overnight
tonight low temperatures will increase a few degrees compared to
yesterday, mainly in the mid 60s to near 70F.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Thursday)
Issued at 1145 AM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Upper level ridging will persist through Saturday with light
southerly flow. Afternoon high temperatures in the low to mid 90s is
expected. With dew points rising back into the upper 60s to low
70s, heat concerns will increase. Afternoon heat indices will
likely approach 100 F in some areas, a bit shy of Heat Advisory
criteria. Rain is very unlikely through Saturday.
Upper level ridging weakens into Sunday as a decaying Pacific trough
swings by to the northwest of the area. Ensemble guidance disagrees
on exactly how much the system weakens, but the majority of guidance
would suggest dry weather continues with only a marginal reduction
in temperatures. A smaller subset (roughly 20-30% of guidance) does
push some showers and storms into northeast OK by Sunday or Monday.
Upper level ridging rebuilds into early next week for a few days.
It`ll mostly be a continuation of the same pattern, though
perhaps slightly cooler given increased clouds and at least some
proximity showers to the northwest of the area.
Ensemble guidance is also picking up on another trough approaching
the area for the middle to end of next week. Given how far away it
is, there is considerable uncertainty. At a minimum it should at
least knock temperatures down a few degrees and increase rain
chances, but at this time it is difficult to speculate beyond that
given the spread in guidance.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with mainly light
southerly winds and clear skies expected areawide. There is a
very low chance for some fog again tomorrow morning for KBVO, but
chances appear too low to mention at this point.
Bowlan
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  94  72  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  96  70  96 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   67  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   64  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   65  93  66  92 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   66  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  93  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   67  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
F10   67  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   67  93  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...04

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion