Hugo, Missouri Weather Forecast Discussion

614
FXUS63 KSGF 122311
AFDSGF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
611 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and dry conditions into next week.
  Some record highs may be approached. Drought conditions
  worsening.
- Pattern change could be coming by next weekend (September
  19-21) with more seasonal temperatures and potentially higher
  precipitation chances.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a mid level ridge from Texas northeastward
into the area. The 12z KSGF sounding showed that mid level temps
(850-700mb) have warmed about 2 degrees versus yesterday.
Current satellite shows clear skies across the area with the
exception of the far eastern CWA where slightly higher low level
moisture has allowed for some cumulus to develop. Temps have
warmed into the lower 90s.
This afternoon through Saturday: Given the lack of forcing and
current sat imagery, no pop up showers are expected today
however we will watch the far eastern CWA to see if something
can break the cap. Otherwise a hot and dry afternoon and evening
is likely.
On Saturday, the ridge will remain over the area however
guidance shows a slight weakness/weak vort that rotates around
the ridge across the Mississippi River area. This could cause
some afternoon or evening pop up showers east of Highway 65 and
we have thrown in some 10-15% precip chances to account for
this. The movement of these would be from east to west. Not all
of the CAMS shows these afternoon pop ups but since several do
we want to include it at this time. Otherwise, alot of the area
will simply remain hot and dry with highs again in the low to
middle 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Sunday through Tuesday: Ensembles generally support the idea of
an upper level trough moving into the central plains which will
cause a squeeze play with the ridge. For the most part, the bulk
of the upper level lift looks to remain north of the area.
Ensemble cluster analysis also supports keeping pops low through
at least Tuesday with the higher precip chances northwest of the
area. This isn`t to say than an isolated shower/storm won`t
occur however chances remain less than 15 percent. 850mb temps
around 18-20C will continue to support highs above average into
the lower to middle 90s.
Wednesday and Thursday: Ensembles begin to diverge with the
location of the trough which has implications on precip chances
and temps during this time. Current NBM pops are in the 20-30
percent chance range with the highest chances north of I-44. The
main theme will continue to be hot and mostly dry conditions
which will further impact the severe drought conditions over a
part of the area.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
We are expecting VFR conditions through the period for the 00z
TAFS at all 3 forecast sites. Upper level high pressure was in
control over the area with only a few mid/upper level clouds.
Light south to south winds at 10 kts or less are expected.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 152 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Values listed below are for sites where the forecast is within
5 degrees of a record.
Record High Temperatures:
September 12:
KSGF: 97/1939
KJLN: 97/1956
KVIH: 98/1897
KUNO: 96/1980
September 13:
KSGF: 99/2011
KVIH: 96/1956
KUNO: 96/1980
September 14:
KVIH: 99/1971
KUNO: 99/1954
September 15:
KSGF: 98/1893
KJLN: 98/1956
KVIH: 97/1897
KUNO: 98/1954
September 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KJLN: 98/1954
KVIH: 96/1954
KUNO: 99/1980
September 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
KJLN: 95/1953
KVIH: 97/1953
KUNO: 97/1953
September 18:
KSGF: 95/2019
KUNO: 96/1972
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg
CLIMATE...Burchfield

NWS SGF Office Area Forecast Discussion