Humphrey, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

497
FXUS63 KOAX 091051
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
551 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A few strong to isolated severe storms will continue across
  southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa this morning. The main
  threats will be hail and locally heavy rainfall. Storms should
  exit by mid-morning.
- Highs return to the and lows to the 60s into the weekend. A
  few spots could even see lower 90s Friday and Saturday.
- Periodic chances for thunderstorms will be present between
  Wednesday evening and the end of the weekend, though expect
  much more dry time than wet. The highest chances (20-40%) are
  on Saturday night into Sunday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
A line of strong to marginally severe storms was pushing
through southeast NE as of around 2:30 AM. Haven`t seen any
observed wind gusts as of yet, but radar data indicates
potential for some quarter sized hail and observed precip data
under the heaviest rainfall was showing a quick 1/2 to 3/4 of an
inch of rain as it moved through. The good news is this
particular line is fairly progressive, so the flooding threat
remains on the lower side. That said, could still see some
additional storms develop out ahead of the line with some short
term guidance still indicating potential for isolated pockets of
2" of rainfall, so not going to completely rule out that
potential just yet, especially in any more urban areas. Out
ahead of the line, 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE to the Missouri
River, but it tapers off quickly east of there. Shear is also
weaker as you go east, so in general think the severe weather
threat should wane with eastward extent this morning.
Precip looks to exit southeast by around noon with dry weather
and diminishing cloud cover favored through the afternoon as
upper level ridging starts to build in. Assuming clouds get out
of here as expected, we should see highs back in the mid 70s to
mid 80s. The warmer weather will stick around into at least
early next week with daily highs in the 80s and perhaps even a
few 90s on Friday and Saturday. As a matter of fact, NAEFS and
EPS mean 850 mb temperatures are in the 90th+ percentile of
climatology both days with model soundings (for what they`re
worth this far out) showing some decent mixing. This could lead
to even warmer temps assuming that mixing pans out. Of course,
temperatures could be impacted by cloud cover/precip chances as
we`ll have a surface boundary set up in the area most days with
occasional bits of shortwave energy sliding through. Currently,
guidance keeps these disturbances weak with precip looking
fairly spotty and light, though there still are some questions
on exact timing. That said, expect much more dry time than wet
in eastern NE and southwest IA through Saturday afternoon.
Slightly higher and more widespread precip chances (20-40%)
start to work back in Saturday night into Sunday as a larger
scale trough/potential cutoff low start to approach from the
west and the ridge axis will push east. In addition, stronger
shortwaves round the base of the trough and slide through the
forecast area. As a result, we`ll lose a few degrees on temps,
but still remain in the upper 70s to mid 80s with continued
spotty shower and storm chances into early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 551 AM CDT Tue Sep 9 2025
Showers and storms will continue to exit this morning with
OMA likely the only site to possibly see some more TSRA. That
said, latest trends in radar suggest the storms west of OMA are
diminishing on the northern side and may slide just south.
Otherwise, as storms/clouds exit, MVFR to IFR ceilings quickly
fill in behind them so expect those to linger through mid-day
before scattering out. Winds will be southerly to southeasterly
on either side of 10 kts through the afternoon. Light winds this
evening and overnight along with remnant moisture set the stage
for potential fog development toward the end of the period, but
incoming mid-level clouds keep confidence too low to mention
for now.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion