Isabella, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

578
FXUS63 KDLH 171723
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Another warm day today with highs in the 70s and 80s before more
seasonal temperatures return for the end of the week into the
weekend.
- Chances (10-40%) for rain showers with occasional isolated
thunderstorms creep back north into the region this afternoon
through the rest of the work week, most likely for areas from north-
central MN to northwest WI.
- Another push of rain chances (30-60%) crosses the Northland
  over the weekend, especially for northern MN.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Calm winds and lingering high dew points have led to an expansion of
pockets of radiation fog overnight for portions of the Northland,
which may need a Dense Fog Advisory later this morning. This should
burn off and clear quickly this morning leading to a warm, partly
cloudy to mostly sunny day. Temperatures shouldn`t be as hot as
yesterday but we`re still expecting widespread 70s and 80s this
afternoon, 10-15 degrees above normal for mid September. The one
exception should be right next to Lake Superior. With water
temperatures chilling in the 50s to low 60s and a light northeast
wind expected this afternoon, there should be some very proximal air
conditioning available, particularly for portions of the Twin Ports.
Current forecast is for a high temperature of 79F at the Duluth
airport and a high of 67F at Sky Harbor airport on Park Point.
Today through Friday, our precipitation chances will be largely
dictated by the same synoptic set up. High pressure sits over
central Ontario, trapping a cut off low over the Dakotas with a
largely uninterrupted moisture source off the Gulf. That low should
be able to shift northward at a glacial pace through the rest of the
week, gradually pulling chances of precipitation northward. Today,
our CWA will be on the very northern periphery of this disturbance`s
precipitation shield with the best chance from the Brainerd Lakes to
Price County. Over Thursday and Friday, PoPs pull northward, with a
20-40% chance for scattered showers and an occasional thunderstorm
for much of the Northland, with the greatest chances from the
Brainerd Lakes north to the International Border, and lowest the
further east you go. There is a chance that areas in our far east
like Iron and Cook County may not see much rain for the rest of the
work week.
The slip north of this system should allow for a back door cold
front type feature to ease in from the northeast, bringing more
seasonal temperatures Thursday and beyond, and a stiff northeast
breeze off Lake Superior. This should result in even cooler
temperatures for coastal communities and the return of large waves
and the risk of rip currents for Minnesota and Wisconsin Point
beaches.
Into the weekend, the high pressure over Ontario should finally
start to ease its effect on the region, allowing the low pressure
system to translate eastward. This should mean that at some point
over the weekend our area should be more under the primary part of
this low pressure system rather than on the periphery. This brings
our highest chance of precipitation in the 7 day forecast on
Saturday and Sunday, greatest over northern MN. There could be some
thunderstorms with this moving across, but instability looks fairly
limited and no severe storms are expected. Once that system departs,
additional shortwave disturbances could bring more areas of
precipitation into next week.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
High clouds are beginning to roll in from the west today with some
lingering MVFR ceilings across northern MN. The current expectation
is for the MVFR clouds to scatter out over the next several hours
with widespread VFR expected later this afternoon. However, model
guidance is not handling the coverage for the MVFR ceilings very
well so confidence is not high in the timing of VFR conditions
returning to INL. Overnight, clouds will increase again with
ceilings falling to MVFR/IFR. A wave or rain with some potential for
embedded storm or two will enter from the south and move north
through tomorrow morning. After this first wave there will still be
chances for rain through the day as the overall weather pattern
remains active.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Mostly light and variable winds should continue today, becoming more
predominantly out of the northeast by this afternoon and evening.
These NE winds are expected to increase overnight into Thursday,
with gusts of 15-25 knots and waves of 2-4 feet. Northeast winds
should decrease just a little overnight into Friday before picking
up again and maintaining gusts of 20+ knots and waves in excess of 2
feet across Western Lake Superior. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed beginning Thursday morning and then again on Friday. There
could be some isolated rain showers and thunderstorms Thursday and
Friday but coverage shouldn`t be too widespread, and the best
chances are removed from the lake. Some patchy fog is certainly
possible in places today as land temperatures and dewpoints remain
high.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Levens

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion