Jefferson, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

247
FXUS64 KBMX 240748
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
248 AM CDT Wed Sep 24 2025
...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
- Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for much of Central
  Alabama this afternoon through Thursday afternoon.
- Medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) of greater than 1 inch
  of rain through Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Significant changes to the weather forthcoming over the next 24 to
36 hours, as large upper level trough becomes established across
the eastern half of the CONUS, which helps push surface cold front
through the southeast states. This will, in turn, bring fairly
widespread showers and thunderstorms to central Alabama, giving us
the first significant chance of rain in several weeks. SPC has
maintained their Marginal Risk in both the Day 1 and Day 2
periods, and I see no reason to deviate from this. There`s going
to be a decent amount of synoptic scale lift associated with the
upper trough (and various shortwaves rotating around its base).
But the models not named NAM suggest instability and lapse rates
will not really be favorable for anything more than an isolated
severe weather (damaging wind) threat.
The rain may take its time getting past I-20 at first, but I think
by midnight to 3 AM tonight even the folks down in the I-85
corridor will get in on the convective action. While rainfall
amounts (averaging roughly an inch, +/- a quarter inch) may be
considered "significant" compared to recent meager amounts of the
recent dry spell, it likely won`t be a "drought busting" rain
either. As the saying goes, it takes more than a few dry days to
get into a drought, and it takes more than one "rainy" weather
system to end abnormally dry or drought conditions.
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 216 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Some showers could linger in the southeast part of the CWA until
Friday night. Beyond that, conditions are expected to be (at
least briefly) dry once again through the end of the weekend.
Early next week, the global models are still forecasting either a
trough or a closed low somewhere between the Ohio River and the
Gulf. And now we`ve got potential tropical systems that, while
likely not having a direct impact on our weather, could still
influence the upper air pattern well beyond their potential sphere
of influence. Needless to say, forecast confidence in the long
term should be considered much lower than usual.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2025
Aside for a potential of light fog at MGM in the hours around
sunrise, VFR conditions are expected across central Alabama TAF
sites through at least 18z today. Advancing cold front will start
to push shower and thunderstorm activity into the area from the
northwest this afternoon, and I`ve included some visibility
restrictions due to the convection at TCL, BHM, EET, and ASN
starting about 23z. Latest model guidance shows southeastern
advancement of rain will slow down this evening, so it may be one
or two more forecast cycles before we start to introduce TSRA into
the MGM and AUO TAFs.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching cold front will bring enhanced rain chances to
central Alabama starting this afternoon in the northwest, and
spreading southeastward tonight and Thursday. A return to drier
weather is forecast on Saturday with perhaps a few lingering rain
showers across east Alabama.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     91  68  83  64 /  40  70  70  30
Anniston    91  70  82  65 /  30  60  80  30
Birmingham  91  70  83  66 /  50  70  70  20
Tuscaloosa  91  71  86  66 /  60  70  60  20
Calera      92  70  85  66 /  40  60  80  30
Auburn      92  71  83  68 /  10  30  80  50
Montgomery  94  71  84  67 /  20  40  80  50
Troy        92  70  84  67 /  10  20  80  60
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion