Jeffersontown, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

841
FXUS63 KLMK 300544
AFDLMK
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
144 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.KEY MESSAGES...
*  Continued dry and warm weather expected through the week.
*  With several days of dry weather, drought conditions are expected
   to persist or worsen. Along with elevated fire weather threat.
*  Trend continues to show no impacts from the tropical duo of
   Humberto and Imelda.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 849 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Satellite data shows clear skies across much of central Kentucky and
southern Indiana.  Temperatures ranged from the low-mid 60s in the
valleys and decoupled sites to the upper 60s and lower 70s
elsewhere.  No significant weather is expected overnight.  Lows
tonight should be slightly warmer than last night with readings
generally in the low-mid 50s in the decoupled areas with upper 50s
to the lower 60s elsewhere.  Did a quick refresh to the grids to
bring the forecast closer to current obs.  Updated products are
processing and will be available shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows just a scattering of
mid-level Cu over the region as the upper-level cloud shield
associated with Imelda stretches from the southeastern US into WV &
PA. Highs were already in the mid/upper 80s with dewpoints in the
mid/upper 50s to around 60 thanks to mixing this afternoon. We can
expect more of the same through the short term.
The combination of strong sfc high pressure over Ontario and upper
level ridging over the Ohio Valley will continue the dry and warmer
than normal weather into tomorrow. Skies will clear and winds will
turn light with the loss of daytime heating overnight. Lows will be
in the upper 50s to near 60. Mostly sunny and warm again tomorrow,
with highs in the mid/upper 80s with the development of some mid-
level Cu. As been the trend, went ahead and bumped high temperatures
up a few degrees from NBM as observed highs the last few days have
been running warmer compared to guidance. Also lowered dewpoint
values as well as NBM guidance has been too high on values in the
afternoon not adequately accounting for afternoon mixing with NE
winds between 5-15 mph in the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 308 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
The forecast remains dry with warmer than normal temperatures
through the forecast period. Ridging aloft will persist over the
Ohio Valley through the week and into the weekend as sfc high
pressure passes to the north through Ontario Canada then into the
northeastern US by the end of the week. Daytime highs will continue
to run 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late Sept. into early Oct.
with highs in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the mid/upper
50s to near 60 at times.
Despite the wet weather from last week, our prolonged period of dry
and unseasonably warm weather this week and weekend will likely keep
drought conditions persistent if not worsen in some cases. The next
chance of any measurable precipitation doesn`t appear to arrive
until just outside the 7 day by Tuesday or Wednesday. Both the EURO
and GFS seem to want to hint at increasing chances of rain by
Tuesday from a system coming out of the Gulf but do differ greatly
on just how strong the system will be and precipitation amounts.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 143 AM EDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions continue. Mainly clear skies with very light NE to
calm winds early this morning. East-central KY, including LEX/RGA,
will see more SCT thin cirrus from late Tue morning into the
afternoon hours. We`ll also see some SCT afternoon cu around 6 kft.
NE winds will again increase to near 10 kt this afternoon, with
brief gusts to 15+ kts possible during peak afternoon mixing.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...BTN
LONG TERM...BTN
AVIATION...EBW

NWS LMK Office Area Forecast Discussion