Jerome, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

563
FXUS63 KIWX 160738
AFDIWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
338 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Dry and very warm through Friday with highs in the mid to
  upper 80s.
- Showers are possible (20% to 40%) Saturday through Monday. An
  isolated thunderstorm is also possible.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
At the onset of the forecast, ground conditions were becoming
very dry over northern Indiana. Drought feedback was already
apparent and was contributing to very large (and spectacular)
diurnal temperature swings near 40 degrees (nearly 15 degrees
above normal). This pattern will continue through Thursday.
A very large positive height anomaly remained over the Upper
Great Lakes region to the southern portion of Hudson Bay near
James Bay. 500 mb anomalies of around +400 meters were over this
area and were supported by upstream teleconnections over
western North America and the eastern Pacific. This upper level
ridge will break down early this weekend as an abundance of
energy undercuts the ridge. As a result, showers and perhaps an
isolated thunderstorm are possible starting Saturday.
The latest array and WPC forecast keep overall precipitation
relatively light through Monday and insufficient to improve
drought conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Added FEW250 to the TAFs this morning in response to passing
high clouds, per satellite. Marine-modified air may permit 5SM
BR toward sunrise at KFWA. For now, upstream obs are VFR. Light
wind again this afternoon with some fair weather cumulus thanks
to continued high pressure.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Skipper
AVIATION...Brown

NWS IWX Office Area Forecast Discussion