Joliet, Montana Weather Forecast Discussion

534
FXUS65 KBYZ 221920
AFDBYZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
120 PM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Weather system brings precipitation, cooler temperatures, and
  breezy northwest winds to the region today.
- Wet mountain snow (up to a few inches) forecast above 9,000 to
  10,000 feet today.
- Warm and dry conditions return by the middle of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...
Current analysis shows upper level troughing bringing a band of
showers to south central MT and north central WY. 700 mb jet
energy producing these showers will gradually move south and
weaken through this evening, with showers expected to do the same.
An additional tenth to quarter of an inch is expected through the
remainder of today. With this, southeast MT has about a 20% or
less chance for precipitation today. Additionally, the Beartooth/
Absarokas, Pryors and Bighorns can expect to see up to and inch or
two of snow above 9,000-10,000 ft. As high pressure and drying
quickly build in from behind, the pressure gradient across south
eastern MT is expected to tighten, resulting in breezy conditions
for this area through the afternoon today. Northwest wind gusts in
the 20 to 30 mph range can be expected. As precipitation exits
south shortly before midnight, there is a small chance of fog
(about 20%) for the river valley areas through about 9 am. As the
western portion of the region clears today, this will allow for
cooler overnight temperatures, giving areas of Wheatland Co about
a 30-60% chance of a frost Tuesday morning.
The main story for the remainder of the period will be warm and
dry conditions as ridging builds in over the western US and stays
put. Ensembles do have a wave moving across northern MT late
Thursday into Friday, but with most of the forcing to the north, a
weaker frontal passage with little to no precipitation is likely.
High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s today, low 70s
Tuesday, increasing into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the
remainder of the period. TS
.AVIATION...
Local MVFR conditions can be expected with shower activity through
early this evening over the central third of the forecast area.
Mountain and foothills obscuration can be expected over the
eastern Beartooth, Pryor and Bighorn mountains into the evening as
well, with snow expected at elevations above ~9000ft.
Precipitation dissipates/moves south of the area mid evening with
clearing expected overnight. Given recent precipitation, clearing
skies, and light winds expect fog development before sunrise for
areas along and west of a Forsyth to Sheridan line, including in
the vicinity of the KLVM/KBIL/KSHR TAF sites. Any fog should
dissipate mid to late morning Tuesday. Chambers
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/074 050/083 052/084 054/081 050/081 052/081 051/080
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
LVM 036/073 041/082 044/083 046/079 044/081 046/078 045/078
    10/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    01/U    11/B
HDN 043/074 045/085 047/085 049/081 047/082 048/082 047/082
    20/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
MLS 046/075 048/086 049/083 052/080 048/083 050/083 051/080
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
4BQ 047/071 049/082 049/083 052/079 049/081 053/082 051/080
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
BHK 044/074 046/083 047/083 050/079 045/080 048/081 048/077
    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U
SHR 040/071 042/082 046/084 048/080 045/081 048/081 046/080
    30/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    00/U    11/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.
&&
$$
weather.gov/billings

NWS BYZ Office Area Forecast Discussion