Jones Brook, Vermont Weather Forecast Discussion

567
FXUS61 KBTV 231741
AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
141 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A pattern change bringing needed rainfall will continue for the next
few days. Rain is in the process of exiting east, but some scattered
activity will return overnight into Wednesday, and will then be
followed by a larger push of rain early Thursday. Warm, humid
weather will be present until an upper system scours out moisture
late Friday. Another dry spell is queued up for next week, though.
Temperatures will remain above seasonal norms heading into next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 137 PM EDT Tuesday...The forecast mass of showers during the
overnight was a bit more expansive than yesterday`s forecast
accounted for. RAP Mesoanalysis showed excellent upper level
divergence due to a developing jet streak across Maine.
Additionally, even with adjusting the timing later, this batch
of rain was still somewhat delayed in its arrival. The impact to
the forecast going forward is that this means we will not have
as much time to destabilize again this afternoon. Some activity
has been popping, but is generally focused along a subtle
trough sliding south away from the international border. Some
lingering drizzle will be possible due to low-level moisture
getting trapped beneath summit levels due to a combination of
light easterly flow, weak positive thickness advection, and an
inversion below ridge tops. There is some uncertainty in the
extent of drizzle due to questions on how much low level
convergence will be present. Without any cool advection, this
warm, humid air mass will remain stuck in place. There will be
little temperature change today and tomorrow. Temperatures will
slowly climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s today, and then
fall into the 50s overnight. The sun should mix out some of the
low level moisture hanging around on Wednesday, and we should
see partial clear that warms us into the 70s. In fact, a handful
of guidance attempts popping some convection out of the shallow
low-level moisture pool, but this seems less likely given the
upper ridge and a subtle warm layer aloft.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 137 PM EDT Tuesday...Wednesday night into Thursday, a
moderately strong system is expected to impact the forecast area.
Another bout of needed rainfall will lift north as low pressure
tracks towards Lake Erie on Wednesday night. The warm front will be
quite strong, actually. Forecast guidance depicts sharp deformation
and FGEN in association with the left exit region of a 90 kt upper
jet and excellent upper level diffluence. Deep moisture with PWATs
climbing as high as 1.75" are also likely with this surge of warm
air. Light rain will start pre-dawn Thursday, and then moderate rain
will lift north late morning and early afternoon. Although the
region will largely dry out Thursday afternoon, the vort max
associated with this vigorous system will lag behind. So a few pop
up showers will remain possible as temperatures cool aloft. A
widespread 0.50-1.00" is presently forecast, and will be much
appreciated. Will note that there could be brief gusts Thursday
afternoon. Between the short window between the warm front and
approaching cold front, partial clearing may allow some mixing
of fast flow aloft. However, the inversion will begin around
2000-2500 ft while the core of strongest winds will be around
4000 feet. Stable conditions will likely keep winds limited to
15 to 20 mph at most for the vast majority of the region. A
stray higher gust could occur in our mountain gaps, but thermal
and pressure gradients aren`t very strong.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 137 PM EDT Tuesday...An upper shortwave trough will scoot
across the region on Friday, keeping the threat of scattered showers
around through the daylight hours. Ridging will build across the
Northeast thereafter, leading to another stretch of dry weather.
Another upper trough will pivot across eastern Canada Saturday night
into Sunday. The best forcing with this system will remain north of
the international border while the best moisture stays to our south,
but it could still squeeze out a few showers, especially in the
northern mountains. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the
weekend and into early next week with high pressure remaining in
place. We`ll have seasonable temperatures through the entire
extended period, with highs mainly in the 60s and 70s and lows in
the 40s and 50s. The aforementioned second upper trough will bring
in a shot of cooler air, so lows could drop down into the 30s in the
Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom by mid week; trends will need to
be monitored for any frost potential.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18z Wednesday...Widespread MVFR with local IFR in scattered
rain showers will continue through 00z Wed. Showers will come to an
end at that time, but expect ceilings to lower to IFR/LIFR at all
terminals except KRUT 02z-05z and then remain so through at least
12z Wed. Confidence in IFR conditions at KRUT overnight is not
enough to include in the TAF at this time and have kept conditions
MVFR for now. Patchy fog is possible overnight as well, especially
at KMPV/KSLK. Expect visibility to be 3-5SM, but there are some
indications that it could be reduced to 1SM or less, so trends will
need to be monitored. Ceilings will start to lift around 13z and any
fog likewise dissipating; conditions to remain MVFR through the
remainder of the TAF period. Winds will remain light to calm with
variable direction through the entire TAF period.
Outlook...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Haynes
NEAR TERM...Haynes
SHORT TERM...Haynes
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Hastings

NWS BTV Office Area Forecast Discussion