Josephine, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

667
FXUS64 KMOB 081902
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
202 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New Discussion...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 102 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
An upper shortwave over the central plains will dive southeastward
tonight into Tuesday and reinforce the longwave trough over the
eastern CONUS. This trough will slowly shift eastward, with the
axis reaching the Eastern Seaboard late in the week as an upper
ridge builds to our west. A weak surface low pressure system
across the east-central Gulf will slowly shift westward and
dissipate through midweek, while a surface ridge builds across the
southeast states. These features will allow for winds to become
more easterly, helping to advect moisture back into the area
tonight into Tuesday. This should lead to a 20-30% chance of
showers and storms, mainly across the western Florida Panhandle
this evening, with most of the convection remaining offshore
through the remainder of the night in Tuesday. A 20-30% chance of
showers and storms will return Tuesday afternoon south of Highway
84. A deep dry northerly flow will follow midweek through the
weekend, keeping our area rain-free.
After two more nights with temperatures around to slightly above
normal, the return of the drier air mass will bring low temps back
to around to slightly below normal Wednesday night through the
weekend. We will see quite the opposite when it comes to high
temps, as we normally see with drier air masses, with highs around
to slightly below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, climbing to around
3 to 6 degrees above normal Thursday through the weekend. /22
Beach Forecast - The rip current risk increases to a MODERATE
tonight and HIGH Tuesday through midweek as the tighter pressure
gradient along the coast brings strong easterly winds. The rip
current probability guidance then trends toward a LOW risk
Thursday and Friday. /22
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR flight category remains across the region through Tuesday. An
isolated shower or two can`t be ruled out this evening into the
early overnight, primarily across the coastal counties. Winds will
remain out of the north through early this evening around 5 to 10
knots, turning out of the east at 5 to 10 knots overnight tonight.
Nearer the coast, winds increase overnight tonight out of the
east at 10 to 15 knots, gusting upwards of 20 knots at times,
strongest along the immediate coast. This will last through the
day Tuesday. MM/25
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Gulf late tonight
through Tuesday afternoon as a surface ridge building across the
southeast states brings a strong easterly flow. Seas will also
build to 4 to 7 feet. In addition to the Small Craft Advisory,
small craft operators should exercise caution over most bays and
sounds. A light to moderate northeasterly to easterly flow follows
for Wednesday and Thursday before decreasing and becoming variable
late in the week. /22
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  88  69  89  67  91  66  92 /  10  30  10  10   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   72  88  71  89  71  91  70  91 /  30  20  10  10   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  87  71  88  72  89  71  89 /  30  20  10  10   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   65  88  65  89  62  92  62  94 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  66  87  65  89  62  91  63  92 /   0  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Camden      66  87  65  89  62  91  63  93 /  10  10   0   0   0   0   0   0
Crestview   67  87  66  89  64  91  63  92 /  20  20   0  10   0   0   0   0
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for ALZ265-266.
FL...High Rip Current Risk from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
     afternoon for FLZ202-204-206.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 PM CDT Tuesday
     for GMZ650-655-670-675.
&&
$$
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NWS mob Office Area Forecast Discussion