Jupiter Inlet Colony, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

371
FXUS62 KMFL 251746
AFDMFL
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
146 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Light synoptic wind flow has allowed for the sea breezes to
develop and slowly push towards the interior this afternoon.
Convective initiation has also started along both boundaries and
storms will continue to develop along the sea breeze and other
mesoscale boundaries such as thunderstorm outflow as the
afternoon progresses. Looking at the 12z KMFL sounding, winds
across the mid levels also remain light out of the west. This will
allow for another day of very slow storm motion after they
develop and this will provide for convection to have a tendency to
drift back towards the east coast as the afternoon progresses.
Plenty of deep layer moisture remains in place this afternoon as
the latest PWAT values from the 12z KMFL sounding came in at 2.05
inches this morning. With the slow storm motion combined with the
potential for heavy downpours containing high rainfall rates,
localized flooding could occur especially over the east coast
metro areas as the afternoon progresses. While low to mid level
lapse rates look rather poor (5.4 to 5.6 C/km), there is enough
instability in place with CAPE values of 4000 to 4500 J/kg to
support a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon. With DCAPE
values hovering between 600 and 800 J/kg, this will be supportive
of the stronger thunderstorms containing gusty winds of 45 to 55
mph later this afternoon. High temperatures this afternoon will
generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most of
South Florida.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Surface high pressure over the eastern Gulf will remain in control
today, with light winds remaining in place across South FL.
Convection today will again be sea-breeze driven, although with
steering flows aloft in more of a westerly direction today, expect
to see more convective activity across the east coast metro. High
temps this afternoon will generally be in the lower 90s. Convection
dissipates this evening and outside of a few coastal showers most
locations should remain dry. Low temps will range from the mid to
upper 70s, with some lower 70s possible around the lake.
On Friday a trough starts to dig down into the Gulf, while a surface
front will approach the Florida panhandle by the evening. Forecast
soundings show some mid level drier air working it`s way into the
region, with PWAT values dropping slightly to 1.9-2.0 inches.
Afternoon and early evening convection is still expected and will
mainly be sea-breeze driven again. With WSW flow aloft, highest PoPs
will once again favor inland locations and western portions of the
east coast metro. High temps on Friday will remain above normal
generally reaching the lower 90s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
This weekend the upper level trough will become a cut off low over
the SE US while the frontal boundary will advance only to about
central FL before slowly dissipating early to middle of next week.
Main attention continues to be a disturbance in the eastern
Caribbean which has a medium chance of formation in the next 48
hours and a high chance of formation in the next 7 days. This
disturbance is most likely to form somewhere east or southeast of
Florida. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding what
if any impacts there will be to South FL. Factors that will come
into play include how it will react with Tropical Storm Humberto to
its east, and also how it could potentially interact with the upper
level low over the SE US and the frontal boundary which will be
stationary off the SE US coast. Due to all of the uncertainty, will
continue to stay fairly close to the NBM forecast which has roughly
40-50 PoPs for the weekend, and slightly lower 30-40 PoPs for early
next week.
Temperatures during the extended period will remain slightly above
normal ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temps each night
will range from the lower 70s around the lake to mid and upper 70s
for the rest of South FL.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop near the
terminals this afternoon. These storms could affect the east coast
terminals directly bringing periods of sub-VFR conditions along
with gusty and erratic winds. Short fused AMDs will be likely
across the east coast terminals this afternoon as storms continue
to develop. Winds will remain ESE between 5 and 10 kts this
afternoon. At KAPF, winds will increase out of the WSW near 10 kts
as a Gulf breeze develops this afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 117 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Gentle easterly breeze expected through the end of the week, with
afternoon and early evening westerly breeze expected in the Gulf
waters. Seas in the Atlantic generally 2 ft or less through Friday,
and a foot or less in the Gulf. Scattered thunderstorms each day may
result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            77  90  78  91 /  20  40  20  50
West Kendall     76  91  76  91 /  20  40  20  50
Opa-Locka        77  92  77  92 /  30  40  20  50
Homestead        76  90  76  90 /  20  40  20  40
Fort Lauderdale  76  90  77  90 /  30  40  30  40
N Ft Lauderdale  77  90  77  91 /  30  50  20  40
Pembroke Pines   77  92  77  93 /  30  50  20  50
West Palm Beach  76  91  76  90 /  30  40  20  40
Boca Raton       76  91  76  91 /  30  50  30  40
Naples           77  90  76  91 /  20  20  10  30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC

NWS mfl Office Area Forecast Discussion