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Keating, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

790
FXUS65 KBOI 191605
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1005 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025

.DISCUSSION...High clouds from a low pressure system in CA continue to stream into the area this morning. Enough instability for isolated thunderstorms south along the NV border this afternoon, where partial clearing will enhance instability. High clouds on Saturday decrease, allowing for more sun/instability and a slightly higher chance for storms. Storms will generally develop south of the Snake Plain over the higher terrain on Saturday afternoon. Current forecast on track with no updates.

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.AVIATION...VFR and broken high clouds. Isolated showers and storms along and south of the NV border this afternoon. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-E 5-10 kt.

KBOI...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds SE around 5 kt, becoming NW 5-10 kt after 18Z.

Weekend Outlook...VFR with increasing chances for showers beginning Saturday afternoon, mainly south of the Snake River Plain. By Sunday afternoon showers and storms will be possible over the mountains of central Idaho and northeast Oregon, potentially impacting KBKE and KMYL. MVFR will be possible in the strongest storms along with gusty frontal winds. Surface winds SW 5-10 kt on Saturday increasing to NW 10-20 kt on Sunday.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Middle and high level moisture from California and western Nevada will develop isolated showers and thunderstorms as far north as the NV/ID border this afternoon and evening. Part of the moisture will remain along the ID/NV border tonight while the rest turns westward across Oregon around a Pacific upper low off Calif. On Saturday enough moisture will remain in our CWA for a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon/ evening showers and thunderstorms near the ID/NV border, and a 10 to 20 percent chance in southern Harney and Malheur Counties in OR. Early Sunday morning a Gulf of Alaska cold front will come inland over western WA and develop more showers and thunderstorms later Sunday in our southern zones as it taps into moisture lingering there, and also in ID north of the Snake Basin where stronger dynamics will occur near the cold front. Sunday afternoon should be the wettest period with a 40 to 65 percent chance of showers and 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the central ID mountains, 20 to 40 percent chance in the southern Sawtooths, and 15 to 25 percent chance elsewhere. Temperatures will stay around ten degrees above normal until Sunday`s cold front, then drop quickly to normal Sunday night and about 5 degrees below normal Monday. The front will also bring northwest wind gusts 20 to 30 mph Sunday afternoon, except up to 40 mph in the Magic Valley.

LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Monday looks sunny, breezy, and cool, and Monday night looks clear and cool with calming winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny and warmer as an upper ridge re-establishes over the interior western US. On Thursday an upper low in Calif is forecast to move eastward into NV but close enough for a slight chance of showers near the NV/ID border. The rest of our CWA should continue sunny and warm. On Friday the NV upper low will shift to Utah while the next Gulf of Alaska cold front moves inland across WA, leaving our CWA mostly sunny and warm.

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.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None.

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DISCUSSION...KA AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....MC

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion

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