Keating, Oregon Weather Forecast Discussion

790
FXUS65 KBOI 191605
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
1005 AM MDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.DISCUSSION...High clouds from a low pressure system in CA
continue to stream into the area this morning. Enough
instability for isolated thunderstorms south along the NV border
this afternoon, where partial clearing will enhance instability.
High clouds on Saturday decrease, allowing for more
sun/instability and a slightly higher chance for storms. Storms
will generally develop south of the Snake Plain over the higher
terrain on Saturday afternoon. Current forecast on track with
no updates.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR and broken high clouds. Isolated showers and
storms along and south of the NV border this afternoon. Surface
winds: variable up to 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-E 5-10 kt.
KBOI...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds SE around 5 kt, becoming
NW 5-10 kt after 18Z.
Weekend Outlook...VFR with increasing chances for showers beginning
Saturday afternoon, mainly south of the Snake River Plain. By Sunday
afternoon showers and storms will be possible over the mountains of
central Idaho and northeast Oregon, potentially impacting KBKE and
KMYL. MVFR will be possible in the strongest storms along with gusty
frontal winds. Surface winds SW 5-10 kt on Saturday increasing to NW
10-20 kt on Sunday.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...Middle and high level
moisture from California and western Nevada will develop isolated
showers and thunderstorms as far north as the NV/ID border this
afternoon and evening. Part of the moisture will remain along the
ID/NV border tonight while the rest turns westward across Oregon
around a Pacific upper low off Calif. On Saturday enough moisture
will remain in our CWA for a 20 to 30 percent chance of afternoon/
evening showers and thunderstorms near the ID/NV border, and a
10 to 20 percent chance in southern Harney and Malheur Counties
in OR. Early Sunday morning a Gulf of Alaska cold front will
come inland over western WA and develop more showers and
thunderstorms later Sunday in our southern zones as it taps into
moisture lingering there, and also in ID north of the Snake Basin
where stronger dynamics will occur near the cold front.  Sunday
afternoon should be the wettest period with a 40 to 65 percent
chance of showers and 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the
central ID mountains, 20 to 40 percent chance in the southern
Sawtooths, and 15 to 25 percent chance elsewhere. Temperatures
will stay around ten degrees above normal until Sunday`s cold
front, then drop quickly to normal Sunday night and about 5
degrees below normal Monday.  The front will also bring northwest
wind gusts 20 to 30 mph Sunday afternoon, except up to 40 mph in
the Magic Valley.
LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Monday looks sunny, breezy,
and cool, and Monday night looks clear and cool with calming
winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will be sunny and warmer as an
upper ridge re-establishes over the interior western US.
On Thursday an upper low in Calif is forecast to move eastward
into NV but close enough for a slight chance of showers near
the NV/ID border. The rest of our CWA should continue sunny and
warm. On Friday the NV upper low will shift to Utah while the
next Gulf of Alaska cold front moves inland across WA, leaving
our CWA mostly sunny and warm.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....JM
SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....MC

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion