Kermit, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

210
FXUS64 KMAF 290546
AFDMAF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1246 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible again
  Monday across locations west of the Pecos River.
- A warmer and drier pattern sets up later this week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Monday night)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Current radar shows scattered showers and thunderstorms from
southeastern New Mexico to the Davis Mountains. A few cells
briefly become strong before diminishing in intensity again so it
appears shear is not quite adequate for severe storms. In
addition, so far cells have been showing enough speed to prevent
heavy rainfall amounts and a widespread flash flood threat.
However a few storms in the mountains are redeveloping in the same
place and that could lead to isolated flash flooding. Later this
evening there may also be cell training occurring (repeated
rainfall over the same area) that could cause a flash flood threat
so the watch will remain in effect. Radar trends and hi-res model
data indicate convection will not stray too far to the east and
PoPs quickly drop east of the Pecos River.
The upper trough causing the instability and convection today
moves east into the Rockies tomorrow bringing an end to rain
chances. Showers do not move east with the trough because mid
level moisture remains to the west causing a dry trough passage in
the Permian Basin. A long low level fetch of cool gulf air brings
temperatures down a few degrees with highs ranging from the upper
70s to mid 80s making Monday the coolest day of the upcoming weak.
Hennig
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025
Ridging associated with a high over northern Mexico gradually
builds north this week keeping us dry and nudging highs back into
the upper 80s to mid 90s area wide. These values are about 5 to 10
degrees above normal and a little reminder that we are not that
far removed from summer. The next system to keep an eye on may
arrive next weekend as a trough moves across the intermountain
west. However we are still waiting on our first strong cold front
of the season as this trough will probably remain to our north
giving us only the hope of a weak frontal passage to get temps
back down to normal.
Hennig
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
VFR conditions will remain prevalent across the region underneath
broken-overcast mid and high level cloud decks streaming overhead.
A few light showers will remain possible overnight west of the
Pecos with another round of isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms over western areas again during the day Monday.
Confidence of impact is too low to include mention at any
terminal. Winds remain light tonight and generally southeasterly
to easterly up to around 10 knots during the day Monday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               82  58  87  61 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 79  57  85  59 /  20   0   0   0
Dryden                   84  61  89  63 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            82  59  87  62 /  20   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           70  56  76  59 /  30   0   0   0
Hobbs                    78  55  84  58 /  20   0   0   0
Marfa                    75  50  80  52 /  40   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     81  59  87  62 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   80  60  86  62 /  10   0   0   0
Wink                     80  58  86  59 /  20   0   0   0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...21

NWS MAF Office Area Forecast Discussion