Kinghurst, Minnesota Weather Forecast Discussion

030
FXUS63 KDLH 161114
AFDDLH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
614 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated showers and storms are possible late this afternoon
  and evening, generally along and south of the Iron Range and
  into the Arrowhead. A strong to severe storm or two can`t be
  ruled out.
- Warm to hot temperatures continue today and Wednesday, then a
  return to more seasonal temperatures.
-  On-and-off shower and storm chances through the week and
   into the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
A vertically stacked low pressure system is centered over south
central Canada, over Lake Winnipeg, with upper level ridging
across Lake Michigan toward Hudson Bay. A cold front extends
southward through eastern ND, arching southwest and into
western NE, while broad surface high pressure is centered over
Quebec. Locally, light low level winds are out of the south to
southeast, with dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Winds are a
bit weaker tonight and not seeing the extensive fog and low
clouds that have settled over the region the last few mornings.
Patchy fog and lower cigs should be confined to the more typical
foggier spots, with low clouds closer to the shore lines.
For today, continued low level warm and moisture advection will
continue with PWs remaining over 1 inch and approaching
1.25inches by this evening for locations south of US-2. There
is not much of a surface boundary to focus any convection on
today, and with the continued southeasterly winds, the airmass
will remain capped through much of the day. This will allow for
instability to build below the cap as high temperatures warm
into the 80s (mid to upper 70s along the immediate shore line)
with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Best CAPE values will be
along and south of the Iron Range, where those dewpoints will
be greatest and better mid level lapse rates arrive this
afternoon. By late afternoon, stronger mid level winds arrive as
a shortwave moves eastward along the Canadian border. This
enhances shear parameters north of the Iron Range and in to the
Arrowhead.
There will be an area where shear parameters overlay with
better instability and those decreasing lapse rates, and a few
thunderstorms develop by late afternoon and evening. Given the
uncertainty on where this setup occurs, there is low confidence
on where storms could develop. For now, will include rain/storm
chances in an axis from near the Brainerd Lakes northeastward
into the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. However, if storms
do develop, and there might only be a few, they will likely be
strong to severe with large hail and damaging winds possible.
A weak cold front pushes into the area tonight, and likely hangs
up somewhere as upper level ridging amplifies over the region
Wednesday. This will provide a focus for scattered showers and
storms. Over the northern Plains, a messy broad upper trough
will become more organized by the end of the week, and push
toward the Great Lakes by the weekend. With continued southerly
flow on the east side of the trough and weak impulses rotating
through the Northland, continued scattered rain chances are
expected most days through the weekend. Good news - with surface
high pressure nearby to our north, low level easterly flow will
keeps temperatures to more seasonal numbers into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Patchy fog has developed at the typical foggier terminals, with
low clouds developing near the shorelines and HIB. These
conditions will improve this morning, not lingering as long as
the past few days.
Winds will increase today from the south to southwest today,
with winds at 5-10kts and gusts up to 18kts. There is a low
chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
but there is a large uncertainty on where development occurs.
Chances at this time are too low to include at any particular
terminal. Lower vis is possible again tonight given continued
increased low level moisture and light winds.
&&
.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 328 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Areas of fog have formed along the shores of western Lake
Superior this morning, but expect conditions to improve with
sunrise this morning, as winds become light from roughly the
southeast. Winds remain light and variable Wednesday as well,
then more persistent east/northeast winds are expected Thursday
and Friday with some conditions that may be hazardous for small
craft on Friday. There will be on- and-off chances for isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.
Severe weather is not expected at this time, though a stronger
storm or two capable of some gusty winds or small hail is
possible this afternoon and Tuesday evening.
For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...HA

NWS DLH Office Area Forecast Discussion